# Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 59% across 3 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpresadvance
Updated: 2026-08-24T22:20:50.037Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-03

## Headline

- Probability: 59% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 83¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-flavio-bolsonaro-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-th-kalshi-kxbrpresadvance-26oct04-fbol |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 92¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-qualify-for-the-runo-kalshi-kxbrpresadvance-26oct04-lsil |
| Renan Santos | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-renan-santos-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-20-kalshi-kxbrpresadvance-26oct04-rsan |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 79 |
| 2026-08-11 | 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | 85 |
| 2026-08-23 | 88 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +46pp 46→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +13pp 34→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Flavio Bolsonaro +5pp 80→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Flavio Bolsonaro +4pp 87→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Flavio Bolsonaro −4pp 91→87¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 36% chance that Flavio Bolsonaro will advance to the runoff round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, where the top two finishers compete in a second round. The market reflects competitive uncertainty about his standing among right-wing candidates and his viability relative to other potential contestants. The main factors influencing this estimate are Flavio's current polling position within the right-wing political space, competition from other center-right and conservative candidates, and any legal or political developments affecting his candidacy. The election's first round, scheduled for October 2026, will definitively determine whether he finishes in the top two and qualifies for the runoff. Current uncertainty hinges on voter preference consolidation among non-left candidates and whether frontrunners Lula (priced at 93%) and other challengers fragment the vote.

### Key factors

- Flavio Bolsonaro's standing in recent public opinion polls relative to other right-wing and center-right candidates competing for the non-left vote
- Legal or electoral barriers that could disqualify him from running, given the Bolsonaro family's history with judiciary decisions
- Vote fragmentation among conservative and center-right candidates, which determines whether any single right-wing candidate reaches the runoff
- Comparison with related contract prices showing Lula at 93% and other conservative candidates ranging from 7-16%, establishing Flavio's relative competitiveness
- Schedule of major campaign events, debates, and polling releases between now and the October 2026 first-round election

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpresadvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brpresadvance
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.