# Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 4 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpresident2
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:09.732Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Santos | 6¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-renan-santos-finish-2nd-in-the-first-round-of-kalshi-kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2-rsan |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 51¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-flvio-bolsonaro-finish-2nd-in-the-first-round-kalshi-kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2-fbol |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-finish-2nd-in-the-fi-kalshi-kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2-lsil |
| Romeu Zema | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-romeu-zema-finish-2nd-in-the-first-round-of-t-kalshi-kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2-rzem |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 40 |
| 2026-05-14 | 20 |
| 2026-05-21 | 26 |
| 2026-05-28 | 51 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · Flávio Bolsonaro −18pp 54→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Flávio Bolsonaro +10pp 40→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva −8pp 15→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +6pp 4→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · Flávio Bolsonaro +4pp 36→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 27% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro finishes second in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, behind the frontrunner. The probability reflects uncertainty about candidate positioning in what could be a competitive three-way or four-way race. Key drivers include Bolsonaro family political standing post-2022, the strength of alternative right-wing candidates like Romeu Zema, and how Lula's popularity evolves in office. The election occurs in October 2026, but significant shifts could occur during the campaign period through polling trends and political consolidation around candidates. Markets currently assign only 6% probability to Zema finishing second and 21% to Lula, suggesting Flávio is viewed as a stronger second-place contender than other opposition figures by traders, though still unlikely to outpace the expected frontrunner.

### Key factors

- Flávio Bolsonaro's current legal challenges and conviction status, which directly affect his eligibility and public viability as a candidate
- Lula administration approval ratings and economic conditions in Brazil through mid-2026, which influence whether an incumbent or opposition candidate leads the first round
- Whether the right-wing vote consolidates around Bolsonaro family candidates or fragments among alternatives like Zema or other center-right figures
- October 2026 election date and primary/pre-campaign polling data released in 2026, which will reveal actual candidate strength and voter preference distribution
- International and domestic political events between now and October 2026 that could shift momentum toward or away from Bolsonaro family political viability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpresident2
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brpresident2
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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