# Will Romeu Zema finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 6 contracts — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpresident3
Updated: 2026-06-25T18:20:49.177Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $241

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 15¢ | ±0 | $237 | kalshi | /markets/will-flvio-bolsonaro-finish-3rd-in-the-first-round-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-fbol |
| Renan Santos | 6¢ | −37pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-renan-santos-finish-3rd-in-the-first-round-of-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-rsan |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 19¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-finish-3rd-in-the-fi-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-lsil |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eduardo-bolsonaro-finish-3rd-in-the-first-rou-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-ebol |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michelle-bolsonaro-finish-3rd-in-the-first-ro-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-mbol |
| Romeu Zema | 14¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-romeu-zema-finish-3rd-in-the-first-round-of-t-kalshi-kxbrpresident3-brpres26-3-rzem |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 16 |
| 2026-06-11 | 19 |
| 2026-06-18 | 28 |
| 2026-06-24 | 17 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Renan Santos −37pp 56→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +14pp 4→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Renan Santos +6pp 50→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Romeu Zema −5pp 18→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Romeu Zema +5pp 9→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 21% chance that Romeu Zema, the current governor of Minas Gerais, finishes in third place in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Zema can consolidate enough support among centrist and right-wing voters to secure a podium finish ahead of other viable candidates. The main factors driving this level are Zema's regional base in Minas Gerais, his positioning as a centrist alternative, and competition from established national figures. The Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 2026 will serve as the ultimate resolution point, though primary dynamics and candidate consolidation patterns over the coming months will significantly shape his viability. Early polling data and any announcements about coalition-building or party support would clarify his trajectory.

### Key factors

- Zema's polling performance relative to other right-of-center and centrist candidates in national surveys leading into October 2026
- Whether Zema receives endorsements or coalition support from major parties and established political figures
- Voter concentration in Minas Gerais (his strongest base) compared to national vote distribution across multiple candidates
- How fragmented the centrist and right-wing vote becomes among competing candidates in the first round
- Any significant political developments or controversies affecting Zema's viability between now and the election

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpresident3
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brpresident3
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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