# Will Bryson break or tie 2+ course records

> 2+ course records leads at 87%, runner-up 51% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brysoncourserecords
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.630Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 2+ course records at 87%
- Runner-up: 3+ course records at 51%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ course records | 87¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryson-break-or-tie-2-course-records-2-course-kalshi-kxbrysoncourserecords-26-2 |
| 3+ course records | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryson-break-or-tie-3-course-records-3-course-kalshi-kxbrysoncourserecords-26-3 |
| 4+ course records | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryson-break-or-tie-4-course-records-4-course-kalshi-kxbrysoncourserecords-26-4 |
| 5+ course records | 7¢ | −1pp | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryson-break-or-tie-5-course-records-5-course-kalshi-kxbrysoncourserecords-26-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2+ course records | 3+ course records | 4+ course records |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 84 | 21 | 32 |
| 2026-04-24 | 82 | — | 27 |
| 2026-04-27 | — | 51 | 28 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 52 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 77 | 51 | 33 |
| 2026-05-06 | 82 | 53 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 85 | — | — |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 2+ course records +5pp 77→82¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that a golfer named Bryson will break or tie two or more course records during an upcoming period. At 33%, the market is pricing this as a moderately unlikely but plausible outcome. The main factors influencing this level are Bryson's recent form and scoring patterns relative to existing course records at venues he's scheduled to play. Course records are typically set by elite performers in optimal conditions, so the probability reflects both Bryson's skill level and the rarity of such performances. The resolution will depend on specific tournaments played and whether his scores match or exceed the historical benchmarks. An upcoming tour schedule or major championship appearance would be the primary catalyst clarifying whether this outcome materializes.

### Key factors

- Bryson's scoring average compared to course record margins at his scheduled venues
- Number of tournaments Bryson will play during the resolution period and difficulty of those courses
- Weather and course condition variations that affect scoring difficulty across different events
- Whether Bryson's recent performance trajectory shows improvement or decline relative to his historical standards
- Specific course records at each venue—some may be recent or difficult to break, while others could be more attainable

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brysoncourserecords
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brysoncourserecords

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.