# Fenerbahce Istanbul vs Manisa BBSK Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 14 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bslgame
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.119Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tofas SK Bursa | 35¢ | +4pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/petkim-spor-aliaga-vs-tofas-sk-bursa-winner-tofas-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100830ptktof-tof |
| Petkim Spor Aliaga | 55¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/petkim-spor-aliaga-vs-tofas-sk-bursa-winner-petkim-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100830ptktof-ptk |
| Merkezefendi Belediyesi Denizli Basket | 25¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/esenler-erokspor-vs-merkezefendi-belediyesi-denizl-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100600eseymb-ymb |
| Esenler Erokspor | 65¢ | +4pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/esenler-erokspor-vs-merkezefendi-belediyesi-denizl-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100600eseymb-ese |
| Besiktas JK | 75¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/galatasaray-sk-vs-besiktas-jk-winner-besiktas-jk-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may101100gsnbjk-bjk |
| Galatasaray SK | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/galatasaray-sk-vs-besiktas-jk-winner-galatasaray-s-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may101100gsnbjk-gsn |
| Bahcesehir Koleji | 38¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fenerbahce-istanbul-vs-bahcesehir-koleji-winner-ba-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may101100fenbah-bah |
| Fenerbahce Istanbul | 52¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fenerbahce-istanbul-vs-bahcesehir-koleji-winner-fe-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may101100fenbah-fen |
| Manisa BBSK | 17¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/turk-telekom-vs-manisa-bbsk-winner-manisa-bbsk-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100830ttsman-man |
| Turk Telekom | 22¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/turk-telekom-vs-manisa-bbsk-winner-turk-telekom-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100830ttsman-tts |
| Trabzonspor Basketbol | 66¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mersin-buyuksehir-belediyesi-vs-trabzonspor-basket-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100830mbbtra-tra |
| Mersin Buyuksehir Belediyesi | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/mersin-buyuksehir-belediyesi-vs-trabzonspor-basket-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100830mbbtra-mbb |
| Karsiyaka Basket | 62¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bursaspor-vs-karsiyaka-basket-winner-karsiyaka-bas-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100830brskar-kar |
| Bursaspor | 28¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bursaspor-vs-karsiyaka-basket-winner-bursaspor-kalshi-kxbslgame-26may100830brskar-brs |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Turk Telekom +7pp 15→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Trabzonspor Basketbol +7pp 15→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Bursaspor +6pp 14→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Manisa BBSK +5pp 4→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Mersin Buyuksehir Belediyesi +5pp 4→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 3% probability that Fenerbahçe Istanbul will defeat Manisa BBSK in an upcoming matchup. The low probability reflects Fenerbahçe's historical dominance over lower-division opponents—Manisa BBSK competes in a significantly lower tier of Turkish basketball—combined with Fenerbahçe's consistent performance in recent seasons. The probability could shift upward if Fenerbahçe faces unexpected roster absences, injuries to key players, or enters the game with reduced motivation. Conversely, it would decline further if Fenerbahçe confirms full availability and demonstrates strong form leading into the fixture. The outcome will be determined by the scheduled game result itself, which would provide definitive resolution once played.

### Key factors

- Fenerbahçe's historical win rate and ranking relative to Manisa BBSK's competitive tier
- Fenerbahçe's current roster health and player availability at the time of the matchup
- Recent form and momentum of both teams in their respective leagues
- Whether the game serves as a regular-season fixture or secondary competition where Fenerbahçe might field reserve lineups
- Manisa BBSK's recent performance trends and any notable victories against higher-ranked opponents

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bslgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bslgame

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