# Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

> Above $99,999.99 leads at 18%, runner-up 14% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 48 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/btcmaxy
Updated: 2026-06-19T10:20:18.167Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $99,999.99 at 18%
- Runner-up: Above $109,999.99 at 14%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $99,999.99 | 18¢ | −2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-9999999-by-dec-31-2026-at-11-kalshi-kxbtcmaxy-26dec31-99999.99 |
| Above $109,999.99 | 14¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-10999999-by-dec-31-2026-at-1-kalshi-kxbtcmaxy-26dec31-109999.99 |
| Above $119,999.99 | 9¢ | ±0 | $748 | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-11999999-by-dec-31-2026-at-1-kalshi-kxbtcmaxy-26dec31-119999.99 |
| Above $129,999.99 | 6¢ | −2pp | $627 | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-12999999-by-dec-31-2026-at-1-kalshi-kxbtcmaxy-26dec31-129999.99 |
| Above $149,999.99 | 5¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-14999999-by-dec-31-2026-at-1-kalshi-kxbtcmaxy-26dec31-149999.99 |
| Above $139,999.99 | 5¢ | −1pp | $191 | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-13999999-by-dec-31-2026-at-1-kalshi-kxbtcmaxy-26dec31-139999.99 |
| Above $199,999.99 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-19999999-by-dec-31-2026-at-1-kalshi-kxbtcmaxy-26dec31-199999.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $99,999.99 | Above $109,999.99 | Above $119,999.99 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 40 | 27 | 19 |
| 2026-06-05 | 17 | 13 | 9 |
| 2026-06-08 | 19 | 13 | 9 |
| 2026-06-10 | 18 | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | 18 | — | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-14 · Above $99,999.99 +3pp 18→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Above $99,999.99 +3pp 21→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 33% chance Bitcoin trades above $109,999.99 by year-end 2026. The probability reflects mixed signals in related contracts: near-term barriers (June and July 2026 settlements trading at 3¢ and 12¢ respectively) suggest traders see Bitcoin struggling to sustain $100,000 levels in the immediate term, while the January 2027 $100,000 contract at 42¢ indicates slightly more confidence in recovery by early next year. The current price level, volatility trends, macroeconomic conditions including interest rates and inflation data, and regulatory developments will be primary drivers. The critical juncture appears to be June-July 2026, when market participants will have clearer signals about whether Bitcoin can hold above $100,000 or faces downward pressure.

### Key factors

- Near-term contracts (June and July 2026) price $100,000 levels at 3¢ and 12¢ respectively, suggesting low trader confidence in sustained momentum above that threshold within 2-3 months
- The January 2027 contract at 42¢ for $100,000 indicates higher probability of recovery or stabilization by early 2027, creating a 9-point spread versus the December 2026 target
- Bitcoin must appreciate approximately 110% from $50,000 baseline or significantly more from lower levels to reach $110,000, a substantial move requiring sustained bullish catalysts
- Macro factors including Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation reports, and corporate/institutional adoption announcements will directly influence price discovery through year-end
- The relative pricing of the $200,000 contract at 5¢ suggests tail-risk expectations of explosive upside remain priced as unlikely, constraining the probability of the more modest $110,000 target

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=btcmaxy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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