# Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

> Below $57,500.00 leads at 38%, runner-up 11% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/btcminmon-btc
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.477Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Below $57,500.00 at 38%
- Runner-up: Below $55,000.00 at 11%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $119K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $57,500.00 | 38¢ | +7pp | $68K | kalshi | /markets/will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-below-5750000-by-1159-pm-kalshi-kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30-5750000 |
| Below $55,000.00 | 11¢ | +3pp | $33K | kalshi | /markets/will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-below-5500000-by-1159-pm-kalshi-kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30-5500000 |
| Below $52,500.00 | 5¢ | +1pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-btc-trimmed-mean-be-below-5250000-by-1159-pm-kalshi-kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30-5250000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below $57,500.00 | Below $55,000.00 | Below $52,500.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| 2026-06-12 | 28 | 14 | 10 |
| 2026-06-19 | 23 | 10 | 6 |
| 2026-06-26 | 53 | 20 | 8 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Below $57,500.00 +21pp 18→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Below $55,000.00 +8pp 7→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Below $57,500.00 +7pp 11→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Below $57,500.00 +7pp 39→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Below $57,500.00 +7pp 46→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Bitcoin's trimmed mean price will remain below $75,000 by May 31, 2026—roughly a 45% chance. The current market pricing suggests traders see meaningful downside risk over the next seven weeks, though uncertainty remains substantial. Price movements depend primarily on macroeconomic conditions, Federal Reserve policy signals, and broader cryptocurrency adoption trends. The contract structure reveals a distribution of expectations: markets assign only 4% probability to sub-$60,000 levels and 16% to sub-$70,000, indicating traders expect Bitcoin to trade in a relatively narrow band. The resolution date itself represents a near-term catalyst, as any major regulatory announcements, inflation data, or geopolitical developments before May 31 could significantly shift probabilities across the contract ladder.

### Key factors

- BTC trimmed mean is currently trading above $75,000, meaning prices must decline approximately 1.3% or more to resolve the headline contract below its strike
- The highest trading volume ($4,262 in 24h) concentrates on the sub-$70,000 contract at 16%, suggesting material downside moves would require substantial negative catalysts
- Fourteen days separate today from the resolution date; liquidity tapers sharply at extreme strikes ($60,000 at 4¢, $4 volume), indicating low conviction in severe drawdowns
- The multi-outcome contract structure creates a 29% gap between the $75,000 strike (45%) and runner-up outcomes, revealing disagreement about intermediate price levels
- Historical Bitcoin volatility patterns and the narrow 22-week timeframe constrain the probability distribution—traders are pricing limited extreme outcomes in both directions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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