# Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/btcprice-75000
Updated: 2026-08-22T02:20:53.711Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: Before Sep 18, 2026 at 93%
- Runner-up: Before Sep 4, 2026 at 91%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $51K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 18, 2026 | 93¢ | +21pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-75000-by-sep-18-2026-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtcprice-75000-26sep18 |
| Before Sep 4, 2026 | 91¢ | +29pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-75000-by-sep-4-2026-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtcprice-75000-26sep04 |
| Before Aug 28, 2026 | 90¢ | +45pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-75000-by-aug-28-2026-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtcprice-75000-26aug28 |
| Before Sep 11, 2026 | 90¢ | +36pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-75000-by-sep-11-2026-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtcprice-75000-26sep11 |
| Before Sep 25, 2026 | 90¢ | +14pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-75000-by-sep-25-2026-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtcprice-75000-26sep25 |
| Before Oct 2, 2026 | 90¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-75000-by-oct-2-2026-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtcprice-75000-26oct02 |
| Before Oct 9, 2026 | 90¢ | +12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-75000-by-oct-9-2026-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtcprice-75000-26oct09 |
| Before Aug 21, 2026 | 77¢ | +39pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-75000-by-aug-21-2026-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtcprice-75000-26aug21 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Sep 18, 2026 | Before Sep 4, 2026 | Before Aug 28, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 33 | 15 | 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | 52 | 30 | 24 |
| 2026-08-21 | 73 | 59 | 69 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Before Aug 28, 2026 +45pp 24→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Before Aug 21, 2026 +39pp 7→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Before Sep 11, 2026 +36pp 36→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Before Sep 4, 2026 +29pp 30→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Before Sep 18, 2026 +21pp 52→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects an estimated 62% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $75,000 by October 2, 2026. The contracts show a clear pattern: the farther out the deadline, the higher the probability, suggesting traders believe Bitcoin has a moderate chance to reach this level within two months but face near-term pressure. Current pricing indicates uncertainty about near-term movement, with only 8% probability assigned to a $75,000 close by August 28. The primary drivers are Bitcoin's current price relative to this threshold and broader market sentiment about cryptocurrency volatility over the next six weeks. Resolution depends on sustained upward price momentum, as Bitcoin would need to appreciate substantially from typical August 2026 levels to clear $75,000 by early September or hold above it through early October.

### Key factors

- Bitcoin's price relative to $75,000 as of late August 2026 and daily volatility patterns
- The probability decline from 62% (Oct 2) to 48% (Sep 25) to 44% (Sep 18) indicates time-decay effects, suggesting uncertainty increases as deadline approaches
- Federal Reserve policy signals or macroeconomic data releases between August 20 and October 2 that could influence risk appetite and cryptocurrency demand
- Trading volume and bid-ask spreads on major Bitcoin exchanges, which indicate conviction levels among institutional and retail participants
- Historical correlation between Bitcoin price movements and broader equity market sentiment, particularly during periods of volatility

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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