# Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC

> Bucheon FC 1995 leads at 39%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:22.228Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Bucheon FC 1995 at 39%
- Runner-up: Jeju SK FC at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucheon FC 1995 | 39¢ | −2pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc-bucheon-fc-1995-polymarket-0x031f8652b3d34a949c3ce26bfe2dcaf0b1959ffbb4d767dd4115cc8f563348a2 |
| Jeju SK FC | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc-jeju-sk-fc-polymarket-0x6e3eb20f15e1a8fd8436e174cbed65a1bb8da073b3c76f4dfa6d9b295b495207 |
| Draw (Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC) | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc-draw-bucheon-fc-1995-polymarket-0x96c568718209faf1151f7f677c74d6c7e6e7e98ae21d6c16f4bf4f1bf8fc9d60 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Bucheon FC 1995 | Jeju SK FC | Draw (Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 44 | 34 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 | 33 | 32 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 30% probability reflects market expectations that Bucheon FC 1995 will win an upcoming match against Jeju SK FC. The probability is informed by relatively consistent pricing across two venues (Kalshi and Polymarket) with modest trading volume. Key drivers include each team's current form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage. The market has also priced in expectations around goal totals, with contracts on over/under 2.5 goals showing stronger confidence (39¢) compared to higher-scoring scenarios. Resolution will occur following the match completion, when the final result determines whether Bucheon FC 1995 secures a win. The moderate probability suggests neither team is heavily favored, reflecting competitive balance or genuine uncertainty about matchup outcomes.

### Key factors

- Trading volume is relatively low across both venues ($26-50 in 24h volume on main contracts), suggesting limited market certainty or liquidity rather than high conviction around the 30% level
- Over/under 2.5 goals contract prices at 39¢ indicate markets expect a moderately low-scoring match, which could correlate with defensive strength or team setup
- Jeju SK FC heavy underdog pricing at home (-1.5 line at 14¢) suggests asymmetric expectations about head-to-head dynamics or recent performance
- Probability has held steady at 30% across both major venues with identical readings, indicating potential convergence rather than ongoing arbitrage or disagreement
- Match resolution depends entirely on final score determination, with no interim updates or partial outcomes affecting probability between now and completion

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc

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