# Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.550M

> Above 1.250M leads at 94%, runner-up 88% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/buildperms
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:48.786Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1.250M at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 1.300M at 88%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $22

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.250M | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-building-permits-for-june-2026-be-above-12-kalshi-kxbuildperms-26jul17-t1.250 |
| Above 1.300M | 88¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-building-permits-for-june-2026-be-above-13-kalshi-kxbuildperms-26jul17-t1.300 |
| Above 1.400M | 52¢ | ±0 | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-building-permits-for-june-2026-be-above-14-kalshi-kxbuildperms-26jul17-t1.400 |
| Above 1.450M | 4¢ | −27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-building-permits-for-june-2026-be-above-14-kalshi-kxbuildperms-26jul17-t1.450 |
| Above 1.500M | 4¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-building-permits-for-june-2026-be-above-15-kalshi-kxbuildperms-26jul17-t1.500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1.250M | Above 1.300M | Above 1.400M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 61 | 69 | 45 |
| 2026-06-21 | 93 | 89 | 73 |
| 2026-06-22 | 92 | — | 70 |
| 2026-06-23 | 93 | — | 71 |
| 2026-06-24 | 94 | 89 | 68 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | — | 48 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above 1.250M +32pp 61→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 1.400M +28pp 45→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 1.450M −27pp 35→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 1.400M −20pp 68→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 1.300M +20pp 69→89¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether US building permits will exceed 1.55 million in March 2026, with the current 48% probability suggesting near even odds. Building permits are an early indicator of construction activity and housing market health, making this threshold economically relevant for understanding residential demand. The probability reflects recent permit trends and market expectations around housing supply constraints. Movements would likely reflect incoming data on housing starts, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence affecting builder activity. The data will be published by the Census Bureau in early April 2026, which will definitively resolve the contract.

### Key factors

- March 2026 permits must reach or exceed 1,550,000 units to resolve affirmatively, compared to recent monthly permit levels visible in 2025-2026 data
- Related April 2026 permits contracts show strong pricing above 1.3M and 1.35M (85¢ and 80¢) but very weak pricing above 1.55M (5¢), indicating market skepticism of sustained high permit activity
- US Census Bureau releases monthly building permit data with a lag; the March figure will be published in early April 2026 and cannot be changed after official release
- Mortgage rates and interest rate expectations significantly influence builder permit filings, as do inventory levels and demand signals in regional housing markets
- Seasonal patterns in permit issuance typically show Q1 weakness relative to spring/summer months, which could weigh on March outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/buildperms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=buildperms

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.