# Bundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)

> 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli leads at 51%, runner-up 48% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesliga-16th-place-relegation-survivor
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.705Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli at 51%
- Runner-up: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Heidenheim at 48%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $37

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli | 51¢ | +13pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-16th-place-relegation-survivor-fc-st-pa-polymarket-0x8e5f210df77c1f4fdf62f13b0f74a815f34c231b59879d52fdc0d177f02ace59 |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Heidenheim | 48¢ | +5pp | $27 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-16th-place-relegation-survivor-1-fc-hei-polymarket-0xa8ce9f12d49b1ee593798fec623cb16436519eac885816d7b7fcace0a59832b8 |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Köln | 40¢ | +14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-16th-place-relegation-survivor-1-fc-kln-polymarket-0x21bc7d8a662fce7e156482776fa34c31fa7a77c135bbb4d939d5f5253725d33b |
| 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): VfL Wolfsburg | 37¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-16th-place-relegation-survivor-vfl-wolf-polymarket-0xf6e1e61fad63218f282ac3bdf33702d7608584b057e3f97a26eda46e92556680 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Heidenheim | 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 47 |
| 2026-04-26 | 48 | 44 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| 2026-05-09 | 50 | 45 | 40 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Köln +14pp 26→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli +13pp 37→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): VfL Wolfsburg +12pp 26→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): FC St. Pauli −11pp 45→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 16th Place (Relegation Survivor): 1. FC Köln −11pp 44→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that a Bundesliga club will finish 16th and secure survival through relegation playoffs rather than drop directly to the second division. The current estimate is shaped by how far into the 2025-26 season we are and which teams remain mathematically competitive for that playoff spot. Bundesliga teams finishing 16th play a two-legged playoff against the third-place team from the second division. The probability will shift based on mid-table clubs' remaining fixture difficulty, current point totals relative to safe positions, and injury status of key players. The main driver of movement will be final match results in May 2026, when the Bundesliga season concludes and the 16th-place finisher is mathematically determined. Markets for individual teams like Köln (44¢) and Hamburger SV (9¢) suggest significant dispersion in which specific club finishes 16th, but consensus remains that one team will occupy that spot rather than multiple teams being relegated outright.

### Key factors

- Current point differential between 16th and 17th place determines whether a team is mathematically safe for playoffs or faces direct relegation
- Remaining fixtures for mid-table clubs and their opponent difficulty ratings affect probability of a team accumulating enough points to reach 16th
- Historical Bundesliga playoff conversion rates show how often 16th-place finishers actually survive the two-legged playoff against second division third-place teams
- Injury reports and suspensions for key mid-table players in April and May 2026 impact performance in decisive final matches
- May 2026 match results are the primary resolution event, as final league standings determine which team finishes exactly 16th

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesliga-16th-place-relegation-survivor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bundesliga-16th-place-relegation-survivor

## License

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