# Bundesliga - Top 4 Finish

> RB Leipzig leads at 95%, runner-up 51% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesliga-top-4-finish
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.471Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-28

## Headline

- Leader: RB Leipzig at 95%
- Runner-up: Stuttgart at 51%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $254

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 95¢ | +13pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-top-4-finish-rb-leipzig-polymarket-0xa67e73c06e80891594aed95b81b59212881db3b44377740f98a6cbc4d898adb6 |
| Stuttgart | 51¢ | −10pp | $221 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-top-4-finish-stuttgart-polymarket-0x8ff61811cb593a37da148a8697e00af320c929bdfddce930e58cca21e8d8f721 |
| Hoffenheim | 32¢ | +8pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-top-4-finish-hoffenheim-polymarket-0x1bde71ad84a6ff83821156582e2367d4eab7b3d8e22f21cb65c61f2aaced93d5 |
| Leverkusen | 10¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-top-4-finish-leverkusen-polymarket-0xf0b9e05dab54864fc496d3cb28a9694f125c21ac6a4d44a97cf02058310523b0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | RB Leipzig | Stuttgart | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 82 | 62 | 33 |
| 2026-04-12 | — | — | 24 |
| 2026-04-21 | 95 | 52 | 32 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Stuttgart is currently favored at 51% to finish in the Bundesliga's top four, reflecting slightly better odds than a coin flip based on aggregated market pricing. This probability reflects Stuttgart's current league position, remaining fixtures, and head-to-head records against competitors also competing for top-four spots. The market assessment could shift higher if Stuttgart wins consecutive matches or lower if key rivals secure crucial victories. The probability will be increasingly resolved as the Bundesliga season approaches its conclusion, with the final standings determined on the last day of play. Factors driving the current level include Stuttgart's current points total, goal differential relative to fourth place, fixture difficulty, and injury status of key players. The outcome becomes certain once the final matchday concludes and standings are finalized.

### Key factors

- Stuttgart's current goal differential and points total relative to the fifth-place team as of early May 2026
- Fixture difficulty in remaining matches—strength of schedule against top-half versus bottom-half opponents
- Injury status and availability of Stuttgart's key offensive and defensive players during final weeks
- Direct head-to-head results and remaining fixtures between Stuttgart and other teams within 5 points of fourth place
- Historical volatility of Bundesliga final-day standings—frequency of mid-table teams climbing into or falling out of top four in recent seasons

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesliga-top-4-finish
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bundesliga-top-4-finish

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.