# Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated

> FC Heidenheim leads at 95%, runner-up 33% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.769Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-28

## Headline

- Leader: FC Heidenheim at 95%
- Runner-up: St. Pauli at 33%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $182

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Heidenheim | 95¢ | — | $136 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-fc-heidenheim-polymarket-0x7b2e9c05a6b257ccd8cbdcd976b020bbbef0cd72cdc857e6951b45a05355604d |
| St. Pauli | 33¢ | −2pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-st-pauli-polymarket-0xd1fccf29139e6be18e434fef88096472e89d134657b1e8e54423cf41b4d60856 |
| FC Koln | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated-fc-koln-polymarket-0x0e925ab355d912ed3010f386ee2b62e071823f8fd15660e4eeae92b11e2963f0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FC Heidenheim | St. Pauli | FC Koln |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 36 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | — | 34 | 9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 95 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 24% probability represents the market's assessment that at least one Bundesliga club will be relegated from the top division at the end of the 2025-26 season. Relegation is determined by final league position, with the bottom three clubs dropping to the second tier. The probability reflects uncertainty about which teams will finish in the danger zone, typically influenced by current league standings, fixture difficulty, and team form. The main resolution point is the final match day of the Bundesliga season, currently scheduled for May 2026. Key drivers of this probability include the competitive strength of mid-table clubs competing to avoid the drop zone and the performance consistency of historically strong teams that might face unexpected struggles.

### Key factors

- Current league standings show which clubs are in and near relegation positions as of May 2026
- Recent win-loss records and goal differential trends of bottom-half teams indicate momentum and relegation risk
- Remaining fixture schedules and strength of opponents for struggling teams affect their probability of collecting enough points to escape
- Team composition changes through January transfer windows can significantly impact relegation candidates' competitive strength
- Historical performance data shows variance in which clubs drop to second tier year-over-year, reflecting league competitiveness

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bundesliga-which-clubs-get-relegated

## License

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