# Bundesliga

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 1 contract — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesliga
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:20:51.196Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $57

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: FSV Mainz 05 | 10¢ | −32pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/bundesliga-team-to-qualify-for-uefa-europa-league-polymarket-0x6ee34e67dad26f13c562dbd6aa6ee79f29ebc775a8bf2a81c2176396f866f793 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 26 |
| 2026-05-01 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 47 |
| 2026-05-03 | 15 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: FSV Mainz 05 −32pp 47→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League: FSV Mainz 05 +23pp 26→49¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates the chance that at least one Bundesliga team finishes in the European qualification positions (top 4 or Conference League spot) based on current-season performance. The 13-percentage-point gap between venues reflects differing assessments of mid-table competition intensity and injury impacts. Polymarket's higher estimate likely reflects confidence in Stuttgart's top-4 position and assessments of teams like Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen's revival chances, while Kalshi's lower probability suggests skepticism about Conference League qualification odds. The main uncertainty driver is whether mid-table clubs can close gaps to the top four before the season concludes. The season ends in May 2026, making the final matchday the decisive catalyst for resolving this market, as points will determine final standings and qualify teams for next season's European competitions.

### Key factors

- Current gap between Kalshi (30%) and Polymarket (43%) indicates genuine disagreement about mid-table teams' realistic qualification prospects
- Stuttgart showing 51¢ on top-4 finish while Hamburger SV at 32¢ for Conference League qualification suggests uneven confidence across the contender pool
- Remaining matchdays before end of season determine whether distance to qualification positions closes for challengers or expands
- High volatility on top contracts (Dortmund at 3¢ despite historical stature suggests current-season performance dominates over brand name in pricing
- Trading volume concentrated on two venues with limited arbitrage occurring despite 13pp spread suggests each platform has distinct user base expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesliga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bundesliga

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.