# Will St. Pauli be Relegated from Bundesliga in 2025-26 Season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesligarelegation
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.729Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $296

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim | 95¢ | −4pp | $286 | kalshi | /markets/will-heidenheim-be-relegated-from-bundesliga-in-20-kalshi-kxbundesligarelegation-26-fch |
| St. Pauli | 51¢ | +3pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-pauli-be-relegated-from-bundesliga-in-2025-kalshi-kxbundesligarelegation-26-stp |
| Bayern Munich | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bayern-munich-be-relegated-from-bundesliga-in-kalshi-kxbundesligarelegation-26-bmu |
| Wolfsburg | 8¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wolfsburg-be-relegated-from-bundesliga-in-202-kalshi-kxbundesligarelegation-26-wob |
| Augsburg | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-augsburg-be-relegated-from-bundesliga-in-2025-kalshi-kxbundesligarelegation-26-fca |
| Mainz | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mainz-be-relegated-from-bundesliga-in-2025-26-kalshi-kxbundesligarelegation-26-m05 |
| M´gladbach | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mgladbach-be-relegated-from-bundesliga-in-202-kalshi-kxbundesligarelegation-26-bmg |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | 73 |
| 2026-05-02 | 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | 63 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · St. Pauli +5pp 55→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Wolfsburg +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Heidenheim +4pp 88→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Heidenheim −4pp 93→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · St. Pauli +3pp 60→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 25% probability reflects market expectations that FC St. Pauli will drop from the Bundesliga to the second division by the end of the 2025-26 season. St. Pauli's relegation probability sits between the severe risks facing English Premier League strugglers and the minimal risk assigned to mid-table European teams. The primary drivers of this assessment are the club's historical volatility in top-flight competition and its recent league position relative to the relegation zone. The biggest uncertainty resolver will be St. Pauli's performance through the winter break and January transfer window, which typically determine whether mid-table clubs stabilize or enter a relegation battle. Final match performance in April-May 2026 will definitively establish whether the club finishes above or below the automatic relegation places.

### Key factors

- St. Pauli's current league standing relative to the three automatic relegation positions and the playoff position (18th place) as of early May 2026
- Goal differential and points accumulation rate compared to historical Bundesliga relegation thresholds
- Changes to squad composition during summer 2025 and January 2026 transfer windows, including departures of key players
- Head-to-head records and recent form trends against other relegation-threatened clubs in the second half of the season
- Coaching stability and tactical adjustments made by management in response to mid-season performance

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bundesligarelegation
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bundesligarelegation

## License

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