# Will Government of the UK report that Alan Campbell is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham

> Shabana Mahmood leads at 91%, runner-up 90% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/burnhamjul
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:50.068Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-01

## Headline

- Leader: Shabana Mahmood at 91%
- Runner-up: Ed Miliband at 90%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabana Mahmood | 91¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-shabana-mahm-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-smah |
| Ed Miliband | 90¢ | +43pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-ed-miliband-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-emil |
| Yvette Cooper | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-yvette-coope-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-ycoo |
| Heidi Alexander | 88¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-heidi-alexan-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-hale |
| Angela Rayner | 88¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-angela-rayne-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-aray |
| Louise Haigh | 86¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-louise-haigh-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-lhai |
| Lisa Nandy | 86¢ | +27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-lisa-nandy-i-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-lnan |
| Wes Streeting | 85¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-wes-streetin-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-wstr |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-jonathan-rey-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-jrey |
| Rachel Reeves | 60¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-rachel-reeve-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-rree |
| David Lammy | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-david-lammy-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-dlam |
| Darren Jones | 47¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-darren-jones-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-djon |
| Bridget Phillipson | 42¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-bridget-phil-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-bphi |
| Alan Campbell | 41¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-alan-campbel-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-acam |
| Hilary Benn | 41¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-hilary-benn-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-hben |
| Ian Murray | 39¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-ian-murray-i-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-imur |
| Liz Kendall | 38¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-liz-kendall-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-lken |
| Jo Stevens | 38¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-jo-stevens-i-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-jste |
| Jacqui Smith | 36¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-jacqui-smith-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-jsmi |
| James Murray | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-of-the-uk-report-that-james-murray-kalshi-kxburnhamjul-26aug01-jmur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Shabana Mahmood | Ed Miliband | Yvette Cooper |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 78 | 46 | 72 |
| 2026-07-12 | 95 | 89 | 88 |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — | 89 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-12 · Ed Miliband +43pp 46→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Lisa Nandy +27pp 58→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · David Lammy +24pp 25→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Darren Jones +22pp 25→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Shabana Mahmood +17pp 78→95¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether the UK Government will officially confirm Alan Campbell as a full Cabinet minister under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. At 40%, the market views this as unlikely compared to other potential Cabinet members like Angela Rayner (91%) and Heidi Alexander (87%). The lower probability reflects that Campbell currently holds a junior ministerial role and faces competition from senior Labour figures with stronger claims to Cabinet positions. The key driver is whether Burnham, if he becomes Prime Minister, prioritizes Campbell for a full Cabinet post versus other established senior MPs. Resolution depends on an official government announcement or the published Cabinet list following such a transition. The probability could shift significantly if Burnham's path to Number 10 becomes more or less certain, or if Campbell's political standing changes materially. The modest trading volume ($4 in 24-hour activity) suggests limited market attention to this specific outcome relative to higher-probability candidates.

### Key factors

- Alan Campbell's current role is a junior minister, not a full Cabinet position, making elevation to Cabinet less certain than for sitting senior MPs
- Angela Rayner at 91% and Heidi Alexander at 87% show the market favors more established figures for Cabinet roles under Burnham
- No scheduled Cabinet formation date is publicly set; the probability depends entirely on a hypothetical Burnham premiership occurring
- Campbell's South Ribble constituency aligns geographically with Burnham's Greater Manchester base, which could factor into patronage decisions
- Trading volume of only $4 in 24 hours suggests this contract has received minimal analyst attention compared to top candidates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/burnhamjul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=burnhamjul

## License

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