# CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 85%, runner-up 67% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:05:39.726Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 85%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 67%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 85¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-ou-1-polymarket-0x8ebd7525dd8bb2b980847fde4d4f61ec6e869901ed072c684d71595699ba2a03 |
| O/U 2.5 | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-ou-2-polymarket-0x5dc6595046b8acdf9412c8eee0be54ae049e56d51e0cf9bc6251916c33b70555 |
| Both Teams to Score | 61¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x358004e9b5eee1fc92453fc77b7b9a2114846b54138b01555c8b99a56bf8e769 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-ou-3-polymarket-0x5acd73a17f99c94b21a2086eea3c74005c6215c7fcba666b16246f8d7298d28f |
| CA Nacional Potosí (-1.5) | 31¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-ca-n-polymarket-0xe31249d8d6b209e8effa7fd7dc1d3e28ba981c02502ee00bee4662bc94fac81f |
| O/U 4.5 | 24¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-ou-4-polymarket-0x17ef7c5a40cf328ffc5b94901a4e981fa003ffbcea2761c241c5af3e39aa286b |
| CA Nacional Potosí (-2.5) | 18¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-ca-n-polymarket-0x6d7e5b4a6945de704d77858084a91eb4129bf07f6a5584aaf53813de8d5c734f |
| Club Aurora (-1.5) | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-club-polymarket-0xe0c9f1daa3b32a9219105ab98ee4cf91c841894b876ad649e0b218a20d5ab7d6 |
| Club Aurora (-2.5) | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets-club-polymarket-0xd528db0e04a4cb66663563b9c4390199efe27a14f4b19754da569fac0aa61571 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Both Teams to Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 68 | 55 | 53 |
| 2026-05-07 | 84 | 64 | 62 |
| 2026-05-08 | 85 | 64 | 62 |
| 2026-05-09 | 80 | — | 59 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Club Aurora (-1.5) −16pp 27→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 +16pp 68→84¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Club Aurora (-2.5) −14pp 24→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · CA Nacional Potosí (-1.5) +11pp 30→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 55→64¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 51% probability that both CA Nacional Potosí and Club Aurora will score at least one goal in their upcoming match. The current probability sits above the midpoint, suggesting traders view both teams as likely to find the net rather than one dominating defensively. Historically, two-way scoring outcomes in Bolivian football depend on team form, defensive stability, and offensive capability. The probability would rise if recent data shows both teams consistently scoring in recent fixtures, and would fall if either team enters the match depleted through injury or suspension. The match itself serves as the primary resolution event—the outcome becomes certain only when the final whistle sounds and the goal tally is recorded. Liquidity has been minimal recently, meaning the current price reflects a small but committed group of traders' assessments rather than broad market consensus.

### Key factors

- Both teams' goal-scoring rates and defensive records in recent matches indicate whether they typically participate in high-scoring games
- Availability of key offensive and defensive players due to injury, suspension, or international duty directly affects scoring likelihood
- Head-to-head historical results between CA Nacional Potosí and Club Aurora establish baseline expectations for competitive balance
- Current league standings and form trajectories for each team show momentum and attacking/defensive capability
- The match date and scheduling context (whether it follows a congested fixture period) impacts player fitness and tactical approach

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca-nacional-potos-vs-club-aurora-more-markets

## License

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