# CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Instituto AC Córdoba - More Markets: O/U 1.5

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba-more-markets-ou
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:06.938Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 30% / Polymarket 41% — 11pp spread
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 5?: Soldier Boy | 37¢ | −5pp | $596 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-die-in-the-boys-season-5-soldier-boy-polymarket-0x56e3a277978cde35f4ddea3ddcf62eb0d4f2fb0b282fb9d227f0b4645281a0ab |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 32¢ | −1pp | $206 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-2-polymarket-0x5283a21a15ec521f4337c8e4f501631b4d19582611acba8a1b641466f279dc97 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $198 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| Gold | 50¢ | ±0 | $164 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-gold-polymarket-0x23db4bef50396fe700d23cb2eaa7d726da9280f7ce3ecd54126a976e9591c7bf |
| Velez Sarsfield | 58¢ | — | $159 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-velez-s-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-vel |
| Bitcoin | 33¢ | ±0 | $96 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-bitcoin-polymarket-0xb276435811dc77171602f790db2b5900e780adfadb7cff57e547d58fb1a8215f |
| Molde FK | 12¢ | ±0 | $55 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-molde-fk-polymarket-0xa52956c886382dde96deef4418e05b4d4d03a004b03e1ad792b7cb2b69de22fa |
| S&P 500 | 20¢ | −1pp | $44 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-sp-500-polymarket-0x5290e1debd1d164f7828f32c9da7747018462293928a8624e27a070b7255f1f1 |
| O/U 4.5 | 33¢ | ±0 | $8 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xbba59ee557785dccaa38616ad7638693b68b386142b323e99c15799a1ec56533 |
| Both Teams to Score | 63¢ | ±0 | $2 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-both-teams-to-polymarket-0x935aefc8fe925277b1c75357b4d8b7acd7b9026df0d67c3e43d676b84e63c561 |
| Newell's Old Boys | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-newells-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-nob |
| Tie | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-tie-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-tie |
| Winner: Instituto de Córdoba | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-instituto-de-crd-polymarket-0x3d992a4df2220ff90b3001d5f9a8a18fe550ffa6a9eefc7c4f9e038222dae565 |
| O/U 1.5 | 90¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x9d9b180599d5368c1129158e8a9f7c0f6586c918ccde691fab350935161bae7c |
| Molde FK (-1.5) | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-molde-fk-15-polymarket-0x8e7ca6cc6a708cc573037cadab9106f52e03fb9c3ac52036fff27a161e363a88 |
| Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK) | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-draw-fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-polymarket-0x97e26b708cce56a392057e54620f32a06ea3098419d24cc0937dcec822f76f2f |
| O/U 2.5 | 74¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x27b4e7e9bbe0da233091783d8c72d1eeb89f4ab313c73abfb2b8cbf610eaa7ed |
| FK Bodø/Glimt | 74¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-fk-bodglimt-polymarket-0xe865161e97a48ef754d64f3c8391e041b33e9e0fcef3440ae2c08389e1f6675e |
| O/U 3.5 | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x85b3e4c6dce14f890305a593c31809762755b5292262ddf241ef302afafd0fa1 |
| Molde FK (-2.5) | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-molde-fk-25-polymarket-0x89b8dde2cd62c99ee998fa2678d0a74dcf6a5595db966b01e3095a980f670d69 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 37 |
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +10pp 33→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +9pp 30→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Bitcoin +9pp 29→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy −6pp 39→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 30% probability that a match between CA Newell's Old Boys and Instituto AC Córdoba will see fewer than 1.5 goals scored. The odds suggest roughly a 70% chance of 2 or more goals in the fixture. Key drivers of this probability include the historical scoring patterns of both teams in their respective Argentine leagues, their recent form and defensive records, and any roster changes or injuries affecting key players. The primary catalyst will be the actual match result on the scheduled date, which will definitively resolve whether the total goals fall below or meet/exceed the 1.5 threshold. Market movement before kickoff would reflect updated team news, betting syndicate positioning, or shifts in perceived defensive capabilities. The low aggregate volume ($0 24h reported) suggests limited market participation currently, which could allow larger position changes to move odds more substantially than in higher-volume markets.

### Key factors

- Recent goal-scoring rates for both CA Newell's Old Boys and Instituto AC Córdoba across their last 5-10 competitive matches
- Defensive efficiency metrics: goals conceded per match for each team this season
- Confirmed team lineups, injuries to key offensive or defensive players, and any recent tactical changes
- Head-to-head historical scoring patterns if these teams have played previously
- Betting market concentration: whether sharp money has established large positions that could shift quoted probabilities before kickoff

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba-more-markets-ou
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba-more-markets-ou

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.