# CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Instituto AC Córdoba - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:30.499Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 41% — 12pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 5?: Soldier Boy | 40¢ | −5pp | $361 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-die-in-the-boys-season-5-soldier-boy-polymarket-0x56e3a277978cde35f4ddea3ddcf62eb0d4f2fb0b282fb9d227f0b4645281a0ab |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 32¢ | −1pp | $206 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-2-polymarket-0x5283a21a15ec521f4337c8e4f501631b4d19582611acba8a1b641466f279dc97 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| Velez Sarsfield | 55¢ | — | $197 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-velez-s-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-vel |
| Gold | 51¢ | ±0 | $174 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-gold-polymarket-0x23db4bef50396fe700d23cb2eaa7d726da9280f7ce3ecd54126a976e9591c7bf |
| Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK) | 16¢ | −1pp | $142 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-draw-fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-polymarket-0x97e26b708cce56a392057e54620f32a06ea3098419d24cc0937dcec822f76f2f |
| Molde FK | 12¢ | ±0 | $55 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-molde-fk-polymarket-0xa52956c886382dde96deef4418e05b4d4d03a004b03e1ad792b7cb2b69de22fa |
| S&P 500 | 20¢ | −1pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-sp-500-polymarket-0x5290e1debd1d164f7828f32c9da7747018462293928a8624e27a070b7255f1f1 |
| Bitcoin | 33¢ | ±0 | $31 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-bitcoin-polymarket-0xb276435811dc77171602f790db2b5900e780adfadb7cff57e547d58fb1a8215f |
| O/U 4.5 | 33¢ | ±0 | $8 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xbba59ee557785dccaa38616ad7638693b68b386142b323e99c15799a1ec56533 |
| Both Teams to Score | 62¢ | ±0 | $2 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-both-teams-to-polymarket-0x935aefc8fe925277b1c75357b4d8b7acd7b9026df0d67c3e43d676b84e63c561 |
| Tie | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-tie-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-tie |
| Newell's Old Boys | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-newells-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-nob |
| Winner: Instituto de Córdoba | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-instituto-de-crd-polymarket-0x3d992a4df2220ff90b3001d5f9a8a18fe550ffa6a9eefc7c4f9e038222dae565 |
| O/U 1.5 | 91¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x9d9b180599d5368c1129158e8a9f7c0f6586c918ccde691fab350935161bae7c |
| Molde FK (-1.5) | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-molde-fk-15-polymarket-0x8e7ca6cc6a708cc573037cadab9106f52e03fb9c3ac52036fff27a161e363a88 |
| O/U 3.5 | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x85b3e4c6dce14f890305a593c31809762755b5292262ddf241ef302afafd0fa1 |
| O/U 2.5 | 74¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x27b4e7e9bbe0da233091783d8c72d1eeb89f4ab313c73abfb2b8cbf610eaa7ed |
| Molde FK (-2.5) | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-molde-fk-25-polymarket-0x89b8dde2cd62c99ee998fa2678d0a74dcf6a5595db966b01e3095a980f670d69 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt | 73¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-fk-bodglimt-polymarket-0xe865161e97a48ef754d64f3c8391e041b33e9e0fcef3440ae2c08389e1f6675e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 37 |
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +10pp 33→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +9pp 30→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Bitcoin +9pp 29→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy −6pp 39→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 30% probability indicates that Newell's Old Boys is expected to not win against Instituto AC Córdoba in an upcoming match. The current assessment reflects the relative strength disparity between the two Argentine clubs, with Instituto AC positioned as the likely favorite. Key factors that could shift this probability include recent team form, head-to-head historical performance, player injuries or absences, and home-field advantage. The resolution of this market depends on the match outcome, which will be determined once the scheduled fixture is played. Changes in the probability before kickoff would primarily reflect updated information about team conditions, betting market movement, or late-breaking news affecting either squad's composition or tactical approach.

### Key factors

- Newell's Old Boys' recent performance record in the Argentine league and their current position in the standings
- Instituto AC Córdoba's form and goal-scoring efficiency in recent matches
- Head-to-head historical results between the two clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- Availability of key players for Newell's Old Boys, including injuries or suspensions affecting their starting lineup
- Home or away designation for the match, as venue typically influences win probability by 5-15 percentage points in Argentine football

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba-more-markets

## License

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