# CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Instituto AC Córdoba

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:03.963Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 41% — 12pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 5?: Soldier Boy | 40¢ | −5pp | $361 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-die-in-the-boys-season-5-soldier-boy-polymarket-0x56e3a277978cde35f4ddea3ddcf62eb0d4f2fb0b282fb9d227f0b4645281a0ab |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 32¢ | −1pp | $206 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-2-polymarket-0x5283a21a15ec521f4337c8e4f501631b4d19582611acba8a1b641466f279dc97 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| Velez Sarsfield | 55¢ | — | $197 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-velez-s-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-vel |
| Gold | 52¢ | ±0 | $174 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-gold-polymarket-0x23db4bef50396fe700d23cb2eaa7d726da9280f7ce3ecd54126a976e9591c7bf |
| Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK) | 16¢ | −1pp | $142 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-draw-fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-polymarket-0x97e26b708cce56a392057e54620f32a06ea3098419d24cc0937dcec822f76f2f |
| Molde FK | 12¢ | ±0 | $55 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-molde-fk-polymarket-0xa52956c886382dde96deef4418e05b4d4d03a004b03e1ad792b7cb2b69de22fa |
| S&P 500 | 20¢ | −1pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-sp-500-polymarket-0x5290e1debd1d164f7828f32c9da7747018462293928a8624e27a070b7255f1f1 |
| Bitcoin | 33¢ | ±0 | $31 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026-bitcoin-polymarket-0xb276435811dc77171602f790db2b5900e780adfadb7cff57e547d58fb1a8215f |
| O/U 4.5 | 33¢ | ±0 | $8 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xbba59ee557785dccaa38616ad7638693b68b386142b323e99c15799a1ec56533 |
| Both Teams to Score | 62¢ | ±0 | $7 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-both-teams-to-polymarket-0x935aefc8fe925277b1c75357b4d8b7acd7b9026df0d67c3e43d676b84e63c561 |
| Newell's Old Boys | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-newells-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-nob |
| Tie | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/velez-sarsfield-vs-newells-old-boys-winner-tie-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may04velnob-tie |
| Winner: Instituto de Córdoba | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-instituto-de-crd-polymarket-0x3d992a4df2220ff90b3001d5f9a8a18fe550ffa6a9eefc7c4f9e038222dae565 |
| O/U 1.5 | 91¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x9d9b180599d5368c1129158e8a9f7c0f6586c918ccde691fab350935161bae7c |
| Molde FK (-1.5) | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-molde-fk-15-polymarket-0x8e7ca6cc6a708cc573037cadab9106f52e03fb9c3ac52036fff27a161e363a88 |
| O/U 2.5 | 74¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x27b4e7e9bbe0da233091783d8c72d1eeb89f4ab313c73abfb2b8cbf610eaa7ed |
| FK Bodø/Glimt | 73¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-fk-bodglimt-polymarket-0xe865161e97a48ef754d64f3c8391e041b33e9e0fcef3440ae2c08389e1f6675e |
| O/U 3.5 | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x85b3e4c6dce14f890305a593c31809762755b5292262ddf241ef302afafd0fa1 |
| Molde FK (-2.5) | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-molde-fk-25-polymarket-0x89b8dde2cd62c99ee998fa2678d0a74dcf6a5595db966b01e3095a980f670d69 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 37 |
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +10pp 33→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +9pp 30→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Bitcoin +9pp 29→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Season 5?: Soldier Boy −6pp 39→33¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca-newells-old-boys-vs-instituto-ac-crdoba

## License

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