# CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-paranaense-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-06T06:35:47.035Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 35¢ | −2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2226aaa7d772c031bca563f44f9b6bda8f4a893e723c20efeb17d0e4f434408f |
| O/U 1.5 | 62¢ | +2pp | $986 | polymarket | /markets/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x283620f44f63b784999c890284494a4f7f00a4044e2b66cb40b0e031a003566c |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | −2pp | $572 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc2ca5022ecefa00d5fdb377dcf1eba34cb1973d86b75b22e40122dd29ca651b6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $421 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| O/U 2.5 | 65¢ | +3pp | $162 | polymarket | /markets/shandong-taishan-fc-vs-shanghai-shenhua-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x92fa6c618d32593fd64e01106ddf8102f987fe612e1762d2e78e0d9a38f99a3a |
| O/U 1.5 | 75¢ | ±0 | $49 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x958037183bbbe9c19389945a89a0123d13bd75f0cbc4bf48a9c88a4f8669d5e6 |
| O/U 4.5 | 7¢ | −20pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xc7601fc53255543b0b6c16e64e0f981a397893a6f907a8b89b8b560f71b7db86 |
| O/U 2.5 | 56¢ | −1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2651198ee21da63ab9659c2340246270878006e0d2e196e97b422ff660a2772e |
| O/U 2.5 | 31¢ | — | $1 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x47cce0d3fbddd846405bb6801ccdbba16dbdce7dc16865528e1ac86df28f4716 |
| Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) | 11¢ | +78pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-grmio-fbpa-1-polymarket-0xe873fe50fc9482570a9ecacfa189458b51ccd653085f94ed4733c594dec9a5b1 |
| Grêmio FBPA (-2.5) | 5¢ | +88pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-grmio-fbpa-2-polymarket-0x00611105a63ba1d00753541a964f5da45731283276efa6459a7e04bcf6565a96 |
| CD Riestra (-1.5) | 12¢ | −22pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-cd-riestra-1-polymarket-0xb9a1c0038e64329cbac54cfa47ebe85b1bee2cd9649c024809852b10361318b0 |
| O/U 3.5 | 14¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xb86c0270c5c25bad4a7aa9849abe691a013186fb53aba51af1e8b5f36ad4e733 |
| O/U 1.5 | 57¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x13e665e5a1842f5829a0eef232b3c6597eb33f9d6dad27c02c2e43c7977d5923 |
| CD Riestra (-2.5) | 5¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-cd-riestra-2-polymarket-0xe21ef75a0fe8fbfe2fae2dc60c024d9462ac2f7b8b57c74349f9a8fb401584f6 |
| Both Teams to Score | 41¢ | −40pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets-both-teams-t-polymarket-0x33ab08ffc42814709d4f9f11aa8a9816ecd2aa1be92e8867574b07fc0a76dfb5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 57 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |
| 2026-05-06 | 33 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Grêmio FBPA (-2.5) +88pp 12→100¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) +78pp 22→100¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Both Teams to Score −40pp 40→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CD Riestra (-1.5) −22pp 22→0¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −20pp 20→0¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-paranaense-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca-paranaense-vs-grmio-fbpa-more-markets

## License

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