# CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 76%, runner-up 52% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-05T00:05:39.820Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 76%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 52%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $689

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | — | $109 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xeae9bb07a804f7f882ae1c65403d914b6b1ea655dcaa058e7851a414bb22d98d |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | — | $131 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x80fa15259a8e233447e712175968f2d5446fd9788a1081b5f1ab5d0f9da1067d |
| CA Rosario Central (-1.5) | 49¢ | +1pp | $299 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-c-polymarket-0x80433c0fe9d9cbe3c0c067cc08c763aa50b22a6a1f9f5bfac0e50e443816a6ec |
| Both Teams to Score | 39¢ | −1pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x8f0caabcfba56c836d24c6f61ffd6c457d8d410b9575515f4030f5b5e7ca5dd3 |
| O/U 3.5 | 28¢ | — | $106 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x5a58b85f14b3694bffd7006262f6bfed9ffcb7f5b7a29a8f463e6826a2438891 |
| CA Rosario Central (-2.5) | 28¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-c-polymarket-0x178a18f318990fe5e5e0543e2ed12941dac3b6f0e307b6ffe60800456150e4f2 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | ±0 | $13 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xb4dcaf3bd3dfdf104a2120aa4096bada037df92b8eaad0dad1d68d470bd8a97b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | CA Rosario Central (-1.5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 71 | 47 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | 39 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · CA Rosario Central (-2.5) +4pp 19→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 31% probability reflects market expectation that CA Rosario Central will win by more than 2.5 goals against Club Libertad. The current pricing suggests Club Libertad is favored, with the market assigning roughly 3-to-1 odds against a dominant Rosario Central victory. The probability is driven primarily by recent form, head-to-head records, and home/away advantage between the Argentine and Paraguayan clubs. The match result will be the direct catalyst resolving this contract—the outcome depends on actual team performance on match day, including injuries, tactical adjustments, and in-game momentum. Low trading volume on most contracts ($0-306 in 24h) indicates limited market activity, which can affect price reliability and may leave inefficiencies unfilled.

### Key factors

- Trading volume concentrated in one contract (Club Libertad -2.5 at $306), with most other contracts showing zero volume in past 24 hours
- Market assigns roughly 14% to Club Libertad -2.5 outcome (6¢ price) versus 20% to Rosario Central -2.5 (20¢ price), showing asymmetric risk pricing
- Overall Rosario Central moneyline prices at 65¢, suggesting market leans toward Club Libertad in direct matchup
- Contract pricing spread suggests moderate uncertainty—no single outcome is overwhelmingly favored
- Match outcome depends on verifiable performance metrics: actual goals scored, final scoreline, and whether margin exceeds 2.5 goals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets

## License

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