# CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad

> CA Rosario Central leads at 66%, runner-up 23% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:52.876Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: CA Rosario Central at 66%
- Runner-up: Draw (CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad) at 23%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Rosario Central | 66¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-ca-rosario-cen-polymarket-0x20f7bf9457a32ba2c7e934ee7cec2e7aaf695f87e50927cdaae3d3c1aa98a040 |
| Draw (CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad) | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-draw-ca-rosari-polymarket-0x6baec54597fc3e868efc3889874f97015d77feda2c33848e042b4e1f282ebe1f |
| Club Libertad | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-club-libertad-polymarket-0xecbb0176d801e6a0827eeef245d3f96ea377ec08d650a9fe629bf98b52238ff0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | CA Rosario Central | Draw (CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad) | Club Libertad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | — | 22 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 65 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the probability that CA Rosario Central will defeat Club Libertad in an upcoming match. The 31% aggregate probability reflects modest confidence in a Libertad victory, with notable disagreement between venues—Polymarket traders price Rosario's chances 6 percentage points higher than Kalshi traders do. The probability is driven by each team's recent form, head-to-head history, and current league standings. The match itself will be the definitive resolution event, making pre-game team news, injury reports, and lineup announcements key drivers of probability shifts in the days leading up to kickoff.

### Key factors

- Recent league performance and standings position of both CA Rosario Central and Club Libertad
- Historical head-to-head record and goal differential between these teams
- Reported injuries, suspensions, or roster changes for key players before match day
- The 6 percentage point gap between Polymarket (32%) and Kalshi (26%) suggests different trader bases or information access
- Relatively low trading volume on the Kalshi contract ($31 in 24h) indicates limited liquidity and potential pricing noise

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.