# CA-03 Primary Winners

> Ami Bera leads at 95%, runner-up 77% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca03-primary-winners
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.739Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Ami Bera at 95%
- Runner-up: Robb Tucker at 77%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ami Bera | 95¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-03-primary-winners-ami-bera-polymarket-0xf52b770a05bee6bf830e30d547da04c900917d21c3cb8f087e6bf030e416470a |
| Robb Tucker | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-03-primary-winners-robb-tucker-polymarket-0x9818528d28c6d0df2c340bb7dcd3e5ca3a78588dda0b65fb4b4a643e1c218603 |
| Christine Bish | 18¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-03-primary-winners-christine-bish-polymarket-0x1aefad90587d76710cdc5ce7e21b9282821afb9fa8a4e428a0b1c8b73e25d009 |
| Heidi Hall | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-03-primary-winners-heidi-hall-polymarket-0x952691f60725bfb003b1f1354b14b73db7103a7e20a918387eff8ae158695080 |
| Chris Bennett | 10¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-03-primary-winners-chris-bennett-polymarket-0x6b9a06bb8ffe4c0111add3f353efcd429241a695d4140e811f7d4e06ce3ba98a |
| Chris Richardson | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-03-primary-winners-chris-richardson-polymarket-0x2b339c01becc3f9851d4b24203f0606bb602373dbdaa8800d1d7e551f97f22c7 |
| Laura Koscki | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-03-primary-winners-laura-koscki-polymarket-0x6bf1d90310b4f7a967a6448086b48e85390d04e981887cc96736dae28876fed9 |
| Lyndon Cervantes | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-03-primary-winners-lyndon-cervantes-polymarket-0x92a88eeaf3ac02b38a824b466179c688f737dcfa8da80e3809d8b7749f1028fb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ami Bera | Robb Tucker | Christine Bish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 88 | 72 | 32 |
| 2026-05-22 | 94 | 73 | 27 |
| 2026-05-29 | 90 | 73 | 22 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Chris Bennett −8pp 20→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Ami Bera −8pp 92→84¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-29 · Ami Bera +6pp 84→90¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Robb Tucker +4pp 69→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Ami Bera −4pp 92→88¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca03-primary-winners
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca03-primary-winners
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.