# Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary

> Eric Jones leads at 93%, runner-up 88% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca04primary
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.425Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Eric Jones at 93%
- Runner-up: Mike Thompson at 88%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Jones | 93¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-2026-ca-04-primary-eric-kalshi-kxca04primary-26-ejon |
| Mike Thompson | 88¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-2026-ca-04-primary-mike-kalshi-kxca04primary-26-mtho |
| Heath Fulkerson | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-advance-from-the-2026-ca-04-primary-heath-kalshi-kxca04primary-26-hful |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Eric Jones | Mike Thompson | Heath Fulkerson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 87 | — | — |
| 2026-04-16 | — | 90 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 90 | 95 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | — | — | 3 |
| 2026-04-28 | — | — | 2 |
| 2026-05-01 | 91 | 99 | 3 |
| 2026-05-07 | 93 | 90 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Mike Thompson −5pp 95→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Mike Thompson −4pp 99→95¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca04primary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca04primary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.