# CA-06 Primary Winners

> Kevin Kiley leads at 96%, runner-up 64% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca06-primary-winners
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.189Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Kevin Kiley at 96%
- Runner-up: Richard Pan at 64%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $47

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiley | 96¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-06-primary-winners-kevin-kiley-polymarket-0xdec0c27ea95f2580eea40b9388d6b6b2847123761eeb9cece31df05e33394452 |
| Richard Pan | 64¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-06-primary-winners-richard-pan-polymarket-0x9dbcd1f80bea006f1ac90a6eeefa28ac80acab2dfdc56908cd25b5eac14d95e2 |
| Lauren Babb Tomlinson | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-06-primary-winners-lauren-babb-tomlinson-polymarket-0xfe1373c1dc94a8b1a9f96bf6888f98e30acc0b49bafd08292f86807c58ac46bf |
| Thien Ho | 24¢ | +2pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/ca-06-primary-winners-thien-ho-polymarket-0xd54a7c3af7badf4d298ee4dec70281514bf93a6da7168e2282fdf5cae254a4a6 |
| Tyler Vandenberg | 7¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-06-primary-winners-tyler-vandenberg-polymarket-0xf1ffb035936cd71a0b011cb8a7a8445c6902aa255acddcdc66ce04abf849a483 |
| Michael Stansfield | 6¢ | −1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/ca-06-primary-winners-michael-stansfield-polymarket-0xa347c1d2a33aaf0f2b63f368b7264dd1f668b7f66e1c92f0c5a45f17da386ef0 |
| Martha Guerrero | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-06-primary-winners-martha-guerrero-polymarket-0x73ef256814cd087980ce87e825d32239532b73a8e380854420ea5c05af6c669e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kevin Kiley | Richard Pan | Lauren Babb Tomlinson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | — | 52 | 24 |
| 2026-05-19 | 95 | 51 | 23 |
| 2026-05-22 | 94 | 49 | 28 |
| 2026-05-28 | 96 | 60 | 29 |
| 2026-05-29 | — | 67 | 29 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-29 · Richard Pan +7pp 60→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Richard Pan +5pp 55→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Richard Pan +4pp 49→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Martha Guerrero −3pp 7→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Richard Pan −3pp 52→49¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca06-primary-winners
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca06-primary-winners
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.