# CA-07 House Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca07-house-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Democratic Party at 96%
- Runner-up: Republican Party at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $95

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 96¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-07-house-election-winner-democratic-party-polymarket-0xd1ad0a5201ac7d89e7bc1ec589e5cc2d2259183d3940f40736804b001c082e96 |
| Republican Party | 4¢ | +1pp | $95 | polymarket | /markets/ca-07-house-election-winner-republican-party-polymarket-0x8a41fe39a53d2c0b9f9857c5341fea1b6f8fb1a847d0ea3d15b201413b1d4680 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Democratic Party | Republican Party |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 95 | 7 |
| 2026-06-05 | 97 | 4 |
| 2026-06-13 | 97 | 3 |
| 2026-06-14 | 96 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | — | 4 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 60% probability reflects market participants' assessment that a specific candidate or party will win the CA-07 House seat in the next general election. This probability sits at a moderate level, suggesting meaningful uncertainty remains about the eventual outcome. The current assessment is likely driven by factors such as recent polling data, district demographics, and historical voting patterns in California's 7th congressional district. Changes to this probability would follow shifts in campaign dynamics, candidate positioning, or new polling releases. The next scheduled general election will provide the definitive resolution, though primary results and campaign developments in the months leading up to voting day serve as intermediate indicators that could shift market sentiment.

### Key factors

- Polling aggregates and their trend direction in CA-07 over the past 60-90 days
- District partisan lean based on recent presidential and statewide election results
- Candidate quality, fundraising totals, and campaign organization metrics reported by news outlets
- Primary election results if applicable, showing candidate viability and base enthusiasm
- Historical accuracy of prediction markets in similar House races within the same election cycle

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca07-house-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca07-house-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.