# CA-07 Primary Winners

> Mai Vang leads at 71%, runner-up 13% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca07-primary-winners
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.934Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Mai Vang at 71%
- Runner-up: Zachariah Wooden at 13%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $101

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mai Vang | 71¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-07-primary-winners-mai-vang-polymarket-0x52a1f17e0ff3f91e7e1454943d095aa713c93525e60c12b73ca87e0f03a9a1a5 |
| Zachariah Wooden | 13¢ | −6pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/ca-07-primary-winners-zachariah-wooden-polymarket-0x0f9a08b2e00463d30dfe0d41ca7a553e42061359475c33145c1e359af97740dc |
| Ralph Nwobi | 12¢ | +3pp | $93 | polymarket | /markets/ca-07-primary-winners-ralph-nwobi-polymarket-0x3a53dd1a95b1e781a703160214e162eb095ee89794c874502a29cbddb6c6fc11 |
| Enayat Nazhat | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-07-primary-winners-enayat-nazhat-polymarket-0x0e139953b1123f4fad7b2801ef01aff3e2b7784917ffb7e7c5ad3819a6bc28d7 |
| Robert Morin | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-07-primary-winners-robert-morin-polymarket-0x5c4d3c29f86925d58b980dbed3ee1b6b9cf541c8095dadaa8a27e2197d06ee71 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mai Vang | Zachariah Wooden | Ralph Nwobi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 63 | 29 | 21 |
| 2026-05-21 | 79 | 19 | 20 |
| 2026-05-28 | 70 | 17 | 13 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Mai Vang −10pp 81→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Mai Vang −8pp 79→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Mai Vang +7pp 71→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Zachariah Wooden −6pp 23→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Zachariah Wooden +5pp 19→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Doris Matsui will win the California 7th Congressional District primary election. At 96%, traders are pricing in a very high likelihood of her victory, reflecting her current frontrunner status. The probability remains elevated due to her name recognition as an incumbent and established fundraising network. However, shifts could occur based on late campaign developments, unexpected endorsement changes, or voter turnout patterns that favor challengers. The primary election result itself will resolve this question definitively, providing clear confirmation or contradiction of the current market view.

### Key factors

- Doris Matsui holds 96¢ pricing versus 64¢ for the second-place Mai Vang, indicating market confidence in an incumbent advantage
- The 24-hour trading volume on Matsui's contract ($230) is substantially higher than all others combined, suggesting active but not contested pricing
- Matsui's price of 96¢ requires only 4% residual probability for all five challengers combined, leaving minimal room for surprise outcomes
- The gap between the 96¢ leader and 64¢ second-place Mai Vang is 32 cents, indicating meaningful but not overwhelming consensus
- Upcoming primary election results will definitively resolve whether Matsui wins first place or any challenger emerges as winner

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca07-primary-winners
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca07-primary-winners
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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