# Who will win the CA-11 House election

> Scott Wiener leads at 68%, runner-up 30% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca11person
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.157Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Scott Wiener at 68%
- Runner-up: Connie Chan at 30%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 68¢ | +12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-ca-11-house-election-scott-wiener-kalshi-kxca11person-26-swie |
| Connie Chan | 30¢ | −9pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-ca-11-house-election-connie-chan-kalshi-kxca11person-26-ccha |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Scott Wiener | Connie Chan |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | — | 33 |
| 2026-05-29 | 60 | — |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 27 |
| 2026-06-14 | 66 | 28 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 28 |
| 2026-06-19 | 68 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 68 | 30 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Scott Wiener −14pp 70→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Scott Wiener +12pp 56→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Connie Chan +12pp 27→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Connie Chan −9pp 39→30¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market indicates an 86% probability that Scott Wiener will win California's 11th congressional House seat in 2026. This reflects current expectations based on available information about the race, though the actual outcome remains uncertain. The probability is primarily driven by Wiener's strong performance expectations in both the primary and general election phases, as evidenced by his 93-cent primary contract price. Saikat Chakrabarti, another candidate, shows 34 cents in the general election market, indicating meaningful but lower perceived viability. Key factors that could shift this probability include primary election results (which would clarify the likely general election matchup), late-breaking campaign developments, or significant shifts in voter preference data. The race will be resolved following the November 2026 general election, though primary results in June 2026 will likely create major repricing across these contracts as the field narrows and clearer matchups emerge.

### Key factors

- Scott Wiener trades at 93¢ in the primary contract, suggesting market confidence he will secure the Democratic nomination in what appears to be a heavily Democratic district
- Saikat Chakrabarti's general election contract (34¢) and primary prospects (implied lower probability) indicate meaningful competition but not sufficient to dislodge the current frontrunner
- 24-hour volume is highest on the general election Chakrabarti contract ($5,099), suggesting active disagreement or information flow about alternative outcomes
- The gap between Wiener's primary price (93¢) and general election price (62¢) indicates some expectation of general election vulnerability, though modest
- Primary election scheduled for June 2026 will serve as a major catalyst, potentially clarifying field dynamics and triggering significant probability shifts across all candidate contracts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca11person
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca11person
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.