# CA-14 Special Election Winner

> Aisha Wahab leads at 89%, runner-up 10% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca14-special-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.572Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-18

## Headline

- Leader: Aisha Wahab at 89%
- Runner-up: Rakhi Israni Singh at 10%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisha Wahab | 89¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-14-special-election-winner-aisha-wahab-polymarket-0x54c2b2d889a1f1d86e2ebe557a6b3da3e35c77c476c96d1a90498632f00db20e |
| Rakhi Israni Singh | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-14-special-election-winner-rakhi-israni-singh-polymarket-0x67bf91daba125a739f48ef9bc0a6d3420cb2258ba44cb1e93ae18cce6e0b3175 |
| Carin Elam | 3¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-14-special-election-winner-carin-elam-polymarket-0x95283f33fee7c635fb337621ece148b6f7cd5d3d9391b463a06d62bcd1f8b562 |
| Melissa Hernandez | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-14-special-election-winner-melissa-hernandez-polymarket-0xee7620795f7f183502038a77d5241d058e3f125ade9dfa6477bb39909b0ebbf9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aisha Wahab | Rakhi Israni Singh | Carin Elam |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 80 | 30 | 13 |
| 2026-05-15 | 75 | 20 | 31 |
| 2026-05-22 | 86 | 11 | 10 |
| 2026-05-29 | 80 | 13 | 13 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Carin Elam +29pp 3→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Aisha Wahab +25pp 57→82¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Melissa Hernandez +22pp 6→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Carin Elam +21pp 3→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Carin Elam −21pp 24→3¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market assigns an 82% probability to Aisha Wahab winning California's 14th congressional district special election, with runner-up Rakhi Israni Singh at 32%. This reflects the betting market's assessment of Wahab's likelihood of victory based on available information about candidate positioning, endorsements, and voter sentiment in the district. The high probability for Wahab suggests traders view her as the frontrunner, though the 32% price on Singh indicates material uncertainty remains. The election itself will resolve this outcome definitively. Factors driving the current level include candidate fundraising totals, prior electoral performance in the district, demographic alignment with voters, and any recent polling or endorsement shifts. A special election date would serve as the primary catalyst that narrows or closes remaining uncertainty.

### Key factors

- Aisha Wahab's price (82¢) exceeds Singh's (32¢) by 50 percentage points, indicating asymmetric trader conviction about relative viability
- The top three candidates (Wahab, Singh, Ortega) account for roughly 123¢ of implied probability across contracts, suggesting high fragmentation or overlap in market pricing
- Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours indicates low current market activity and potential staleness of probability estimates
- Candidate names and backgrounds would need to be cross-referenced against California voter registration, past special election results, and recent fundraising disclosures for validation
- The special election date and candidate qualification deadlines determine the timing and final field, either confirming or disrupting current price signals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca14-special-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca14-special-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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