# Who will win the 2026 CA-14 special election

> Aisha Wahab leads at 93%, runner-up 4% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca14swinner
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.332Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Aisha Wahab at 93%
- Runner-up: Rakhi Israni Singh at 4%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $840

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisha Wahab | 93¢ | −1pp | $821 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-14-special-election-aisha-kalshi-kxca14swinner-26-awah |
| Rakhi Israni Singh | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-14-special-election-rakhi-kalshi-kxca14swinner-26-rsin |
| Melissa Hernandez | 3¢ | −5pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-14-special-election-melis-kalshi-kxca14swinner-26-mher |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aisha Wahab | Rakhi Israni Singh | Melissa Hernandez |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 91 | 4 | — |
| 2026-05-30 | — | 4 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 93 | 2 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 66 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | 95 | 4 | 9 |
| 2026-06-18 | 97 | — | 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-06-20 | 94 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-21 | 93 | — | — |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Melissa Hernandez −5pp 8→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Melissa Hernandez +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Aisha Wahab −3pp 97→94¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 93% probability for Aisha Wahab represents the market's assessment that she is the heavy favorite to win California's 14th congressional district special election in 2026. This high confidence reflects her current political positioning and name recognition in the district. The probability could shift based on late candidate entries, endorsements from established figures, or turnout patterns in special elections, which historically show lower participation and can produce unexpected outcomes. The election itself will serve as the definitive resolution point, with results determining the actual winner. Polling data, campaign spending, and voter registration trends leading into the election date will likely influence market pricing in the final weeks.

### Key factors

- Aisha Wahab holds 93% contract value compared to 4% and 3% for nearest competitors, indicating concentrated market confidence
- Special elections typically feature lower turnout and higher volatility than general elections, creating potential for outcome shifts
- No active trading volume ($0 in 24-hour volume) suggests limited recent information flow or market reassessment of the three-candidate field
- Late candidate entry or withdrawal before the election deadline could alter the competitive landscape and shift probabilities
- Endorsement patterns and campaign resource allocation by established Democratic or Republican figures may serve as leading indicators of shifting expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca14swinner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca14swinner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.