# CA-40 Primary Winners

> Young Kim leads at 69%, runner-up 63% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca40-primary-winners
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.999Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Young Kim at 69%
- Runner-up: Ken Calvert at 63%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $120

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Kim | 69¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-40-primary-winners-young-kim-polymarket-0x62deb9a8d72e40a658dbe8e04e3937647d29b2866e1c07737aee5641bae90c92 |
| Ken Calvert | 63¢ | +3pp | $120 | polymarket | /markets/ca-40-primary-winners-ken-calvert-polymarket-0xc887e917c9fe2acfc563546d5a2f8f3e5070025891c85d843f470f0a1ead1aa3 |
| Esther Kim Varet | 59¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-40-primary-winners-esther-kim-varet-polymarket-0xf3874f9f010cc3d6f92d7d696dc135f6adb982c61bdf627a70375301ca849940 |
| Joe Kerr | 27¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-40-primary-winners-joe-kerr-polymarket-0xd132480d5ca9cef067ead40db4b5c1eb6b069365eca97cfe25ce16eb7e3a18b6 |
| Nina Linh | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-40-primary-winners-nina-linh-polymarket-0xf1c38cfd4fe8cdceee732f3fc1d69a241925f23027ce9a7f144bcb53ab16c83e |
| Lisa Ramirez | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-40-primary-winners-lisa-ramirez-polymarket-0xd1027b7ac28a62245461d4df2f41673c421747506404b43afa6ab1bf57f6e1d7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Young Kim | Ken Calvert | Esther Kim Varet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | — | 76 | 41 |
| 2026-05-19 | 72 | 72 | 41 |
| 2026-05-22 | 74 | 75 | 44 |
| 2026-05-29 | 69 | 71 | 52 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Joe Kerr +14pp 18→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Joe Kerr −12pp 30→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Joe Kerr +8pp 22→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Esther Kim Varet +8pp 44→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Ken Calvert −6pp 76→70¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

CA-40 is a Southern California congressional district where the primary winner is expected to be Ken Calvert with 76% probability, ahead of Young Kim at 72%. This represents the market's assessment of who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary. The high probability reflects Calvert's incumbent status and established donor network, though the close runner-up pricing indicates genuine uncertainty about whether challengers could consolidate support. Primary participation rates, late-breaking endorsements, and turnout patterns in specific precincts will likely determine the outcome. The primary election will resolve this market directly on the election date, at which point vote totals will establish the winner.

### Key factors

- Ken Calvert is the incumbent representative, typically providing structural advantages in candidate recognition and campaign infrastructure
- Young Kim's 72¢ price indicates meaningful market uncertainty despite trailing by 4 cents, suggesting competitive dynamics in polling or fundraising data
- Combined probability of Esther Kim Varet (37¢) and Joe Kerr (39¢) exceeds either individual frontrunner, indicating fragmentation among non-incumbent candidates
- Zero trading volume on top contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited new information or market activity, with positions potentially set ahead of the primary
- Lisa Ramirez's 4¢ price indicates minimal market confidence in a come-from-behind victory despite being a candidate on the ballot

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca40-primary-winners
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca40-primary-winners
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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