# CA-41 Primary Winners

> Linda Sánchez leads at 96%, runner-up 88% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca41-primary-winners
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.825Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Linda Sánchez at 96%
- Runner-up: Mitch Clemmons at 88%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $80

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linda Sánchez | 96¢ | ±0 | $80 | polymarket | /markets/ca-41-primary-winners-linda-snchez-polymarket-0xa52792b5a97934995dfa19494c62894434524484236627d884e6f54cb6560bf7 |
| Mitch Clemmons | 88¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-41-primary-winners-mitch-clemmons-polymarket-0xaee825039d21b4eb6699445f388ec6a3f8a8e6ee18f08fc9485e73ec9c293f8e |
| Hector De La Torre | 52¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-41-primary-winners-hector-de-la-torre-polymarket-0x1f13b05cb58a6cba3a829bec71a9dbe7dc3749a9945389b03197bf02af65da32 |
| Shonique Williams | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-41-primary-winners-shonique-williams-polymarket-0xe9005f1c09b78bbe9a5c871122217fed14f1a857a17ab5d3afddbe6860525053 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Linda Sánchez | Mitch Clemmons | Hector De La Torre |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | — | 88 | — |
| 2026-05-18 | — | 88 | 33 |
| 2026-05-19 | 96 | 87 | 27 |
| 2026-05-20 | 97 | 87 | 25 |
| 2026-05-21 | 97 | 86 | 34 |
| 2026-05-22 | — | 85 | 48 |
| 2026-05-27 | 97 | 85 | 47 |
| 2026-05-28 | 97 | 88 | 26 |
| 2026-05-29 | — | 89 | 24 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Hector De La Torre −21pp 47→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · Hector De La Torre +14pp 34→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Hector De La Torre −8pp 48→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Hector De La Torre +7pp 40→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Hector De La Torre +3pp 48→51¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Linda Sánchez wins the California 41st congressional district primary election. At 96%, the market is pricing in a very strong expectation of her victory, though primary elections retain inherent uncertainty. The high confidence likely stems from factors such as name recognition, prior electoral performance, or fundraising advantages. However, unexpected candidate withdrawals, major policy shifts, or turnout changes could alter the outcome. The primary election itself will resolve this question definitively on election day, which determines which candidate advances to the general election. Until then, late-breaking endorsements, campaign incidents, or shifts in voter sentiment could move probabilities, though the market currently shows minimal trading volume on alternative outcomes.

### Key factors

- Linda Sánchez is priced 6-8 percentage points higher than the second-place candidate (Mitch Clemmons at 88%), suggesting clear market differentiation between the top two contenders
- Trading volume has been zero on the three contracts outside Williams in the past 24 hours, indicating limited market conviction testing the current price hierarchy
- The 96¢ contract price for Sánchez versus 50¢ for De La Torre and 3¢ for Williams shows extreme concentration of probability mass on a single outcome
- The specific primary election date will conclusively resolve all four candidate contracts simultaneously, eliminating optionality once voting occurs
- Voter registration data, polling, and pre-primary fundraising totals are publicly available metrics that could validate or challenge the market's 96% assessment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ca41-primary-winners
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ca41-primary-winners
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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