# Will Proposition 38 pass

> Proposition 1 leads at 79%, runner-up 58% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/caballotmeasures
Updated: 2026-09-21T21:20:49.678Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Proposition 1 at 79%
- Runner-up: Proposition 5 at 58%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proposition 1 | 79¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-1-pass-proposition-1-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr01 |
| Proposition 5 | 58¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-5-pass-proposition-5-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr05 |
| Proposition 37 | 41¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-37-pass-proposition-37-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr37 |
| Proposition 2 | 31¢ | −22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-2-pass-proposition-2-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr02 |
| Proposition 38 | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-38-pass-proposition-38-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr38 |
| Proposition 3 | 23¢ | −44pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-3-pass-proposition-3-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr03 |
| Proposition 39 | 21¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-39-pass-proposition-39-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr39 |
| Proposition 45 | 17¢ | −26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-45-pass-proposition-45-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr45 |
| Proposition 4 | 12¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-4-pass-proposition-4-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr04 |
| Proposition 44 | 12¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-44-pass-proposition-44-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr44 |
| Proposition 43 | 11¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-43-pass-proposition-43-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr43 |
| Proposition 41 | 3¢ | −33pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-41-pass-proposition-41-kalshi-kxcaballotmeasures-26nov03-pr41 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Proposition 1 | Proposition 5 | Proposition 37 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 74 | 52 | 55 |
| 2026-09-06 | 74 | 68 | 55 |
| 2026-09-12 | 75 | 68 | 54 |
| 2026-09-17 | 79 | 61 | 55 |
| 2026-09-19 | — | 58 | 49 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Proposition 3 −44pp 67→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Proposition 4 +33pp 4→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Proposition 41 −33pp 36→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Proposition 43 +26pp 9→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Proposition 45 −26pp 43→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Proposition 38 is currently priced at 61 cents on prediction markets, indicating that traders assess a roughly 61% probability of passage. This reflects moderate confidence compared to other propositions in the same ballot measure set, where Proposition 2 leads at 73%. The pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether the measure will clear the threshold needed for passage. Key drivers of the current probability likely include recent polling data, campaign funding levels, and demographic composition of likely voters. Resolution will occur on election day when official vote counts determine passage. Markets may adjust significantly if new polling emerges, major campaign developments occur, or turnout models shift based on early voting data.

### Key factors

- Current Kalshi contract price of 61¢ represents substantially lower confidence than the leading proposition (73¢), suggesting relative weakness among this ballot measure
- 24-hour trading volume of $39 on this contract is low compared to Proposition 45 ($741), indicating limited recent trader attention or consensus
- Proposition 38's pricing sits between more popular measures (Prop 2 at 73¢, Prop 1 at 49¢), placing it in mid-tier likelihood within the same ballot cycle
- Resolution depends on official election results; shifts would likely occur if new polling data releases or voter turnout models change materially before election day
- The multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means this contract's value is directly contingent on the specific proposition passing, not relative performance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/caballotmeasures
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=caballotmeasures

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.