# Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia

> Saudi Arabia leads at 41%, runner-up 38% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.702Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: Saudi Arabia at 41%
- Runner-up: Cabo Verde at 38%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia-saudi-arabia-polymarket-0xff3744285965810d599d4ac7037760134c349eab25c289c14ba2523320debda7 |
| Cabo Verde | 38¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia-cabo-verde-polymarket-0xe949e3949780dfce68fc24136bb3f79e5e1ad94d0001079ee26f6b474d77d355 |
| Draw (Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia) | 34¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia-draw-cabo-verde-vs-saud-polymarket-0x187651dbb617ad61b8c3342a4a61996273a6a206ff36405c37c5cf029c2f96bb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Saudi Arabia | Cabo Verde |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | — | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 38 |
| 2026-05-07 | 41 | 39 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 37 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects expectations that Cabo Verde will defeat Saudi Arabia in an upcoming match. The 30% implied odds suggest Saudi Arabia is favored, though there's notable disagreement across markets—Polymarket traders assign significantly higher probability to Cabo Verde (34%) compared to Kalshi participants (16%), indicating uncertainty about team strength or match conditions. Key factors influencing this gap include differences in how traders weight recent performance data, player availability, and home-field advantage. The match outcome will be determined by actual play on the scheduled date, making this fundamentally a sports prediction with resolution dependent on the final score.

### Key factors

- Polymarket-Kalshi spread of 18 percentage points suggests material disagreement about underlying team strength or match circumstances
- Related markets on Saudi Arabia's performance versus Uruguay show low confidence in Saudi Arabia (13¢ contract), indicating broader skepticism about their competitive level
- Uruguay is heavily favored over both teams in cross-matchup comparisons (67¢ to beat Cabo Verde, suggesting Cabo Verde is considered weaker than both competitors
- Trading volume concentrated on higher-probability Saudi Arabia contracts ($1456 on Israel-Saudi relations) rather than direct team comparison suggests less direct market focus on this specific matchup
- Historical Kalshi-Polymarket divergence on sports outcomes typically narrows as event date approaches, indicating current gap may reflect timing differences in information arrival

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.