# Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 9 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cabout
Updated: 2026-08-09T18:20:49.430Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $325

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 11¢ | −1pp | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-hegseth-be-the-next-person-to-leave-the-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-pheg |
| Markwayne Mullin | 11¢ | +1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-markwayne-mullin-be-the-next-person-to-leave-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-mmul |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 16¢ | −1pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-be-the-next-person-to-lea-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-rfk |
| Howard Lutnick | 6¢ | −1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-howard-lutnick-be-the-next-person-to-leave-th-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-hlut |
| Doug Burgum | 3¢ | −3pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-doug-burgum-be-the-next-person-to-leave-the-t-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-dbur |
| Chris Wright | 15¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-wright-be-the-next-person-to-leave-the-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-cwri |
| Susie Wiles | 7¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-susie-wiles-be-the-next-person-to-leave-the-t-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-swil |
| Brooke Rollins | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooke-rollins-be-the-next-person-to-leave-th-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-brol |
| Scott Bessent | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scott-bessent-be-the-next-person-to-leave-the-kalshi-kxcabout-26may22-sbes |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | 11 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. −6pp 25→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Pete Hegseth +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Doug Burgum −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Doug Burgum −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Susie Wiles +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures the likelihood that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be the first member of Trump's Cabinet to depart. At 12%, RFK Jr. ranks third among Cabinet members in departure probability, behind Pete Hegseth (14%) and tied with Howard Lutnick (14%), but ahead of Susie Wiles (7%). The probability reflects market assessment of tenure stability based on factors including confirmation challenges, policy conflict potential, and organizational friction. RFK Jr.'s position as HHS Secretary has historically been controversial given his stance on vaccines and pharmaceutical regulation, which could either accelerate or complicate any departure. Market participants are pricing in the typical Cabinet turnover rates observed in previous administrations, adjusted for specific personnel dynamics. There is no imminent scheduled resolution event, making this a longer-duration uncertainty contract shaped by ongoing political dynamics and performance assessments rather than a near-term trigger.

### Key factors

- RFK Jr. ranks third in departure probability behind Hegseth (14%) and Lutnick (14%), suggesting markets view him as moderately likely but not the most unstable appointee
- The contract volume ($158 24h) is relatively modest compared to Hegseth's ($932), indicating less market consensus on RFK Jr.'s specific tenure risk
- HHS leadership positions carry documented turnover risk due to regulatory conflicts, budget disputes, and policy friction with other agencies
- RFK Jr.'s public statements on vaccines and pharmaceuticals have generated congressional scrutiny that could either lead to forced resignation or paradoxically entrench him with Trump
- Cabinet departures typically occur 18-36 months into an administration, making this a medium-to-long-term uncertainty without a specific catalyst date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cabout
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cabout
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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