# Will Canada inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.2%

> Above 2.3% leads at 96%, runner-up 94% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cacpiyoy
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.947Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2.3% at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 2.4% at 94%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.3% | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t2.3 |
| Above 2.4% | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t2.4 |
| Above 2.5% | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t2.5 |
| Above 2.6% | 86¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t2.6 |
| Above 2.7% | 78¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t2.7 |
| Above 2.8% | 65¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t2.8 |
| Above 2.9% | 58¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t2.9 |
| Above 3.0% | 49¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t3.0 |
| Above 3.1% | 41¢ | — | $46 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t3.1 |
| Above 3.2% | 32¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t3.2 |
| Above 3.3% | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t3.3 |
| Above 3.4% | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t3.4 |
| Above 3.5% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t3.5 |
| Above 3.6% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t3.6 |
| Above 3.7% | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxcacpiyoy-26may19-t3.7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2.3% | Above 2.4% | Above 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 95 | 93 | 93 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 93% probability that Canada's year-over-year inflation rate for April 2026 will exceed 2.3%, suggesting traders expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Canada's 2% target with low odds of deflation. The high probability reflects recent Canadian inflation trends, current monetary policy settings, and economic conditions as of early May 2026. Resolution depends on Statistics Canada releasing the official April 2026 inflation data, typically in early-to-mid May. The contract ladder shows declining confidence at higher thresholds: only 75% probability above 2.7%, indicating uncertainty about whether inflation pressures will be stronger. Key drivers include energy prices, wage growth, housing costs, and the effectiveness of recent Bank of Canada rate decisions. Traders appear to expect modest inflation above target rather than either a sharp spike or return to the 2% goal.

### Key factors

- April 2026 year-over-year CPI will be published by Statistics Canada, providing the exact figure against which all thresholds are measured
- Probability drops from 93% (above 2.3%) to 75% (above 2.7%), showing consensus expects inflation in the 2.3–2.7% range rather than extreme outcomes
- Energy prices, food costs, and core inflation components in April will directly determine whether inflation stays above 2.3% or falls below it
- Bank of Canada monetary policy tightness as of spring 2026 and labor market conditions shape inflation trajectory entering the April measurement period
- Recent month-over-month and year-over-year CPI data from prior months provides the immediate reference point for market expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cacpiyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cacpiyoy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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