# Who will win the 2026 CA-37 House election

> Lateefah Simon leads at 96%, runner-up 92% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/caelection
Updated: 2026-07-12T23:20:50.611Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Lateefah Simon at 96%
- Runner-up: Sydney Kamlager-Dove at 92%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $32

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lateefah Simon | 96¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-12-house-election-lateefa-kalshi-kxcaelection-2612-lsim |
| Sydney Kamlager-Dove | 92¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-37-house-election-sydney-kalshi-kxcaelection-2637-skam |
| Aisha Wahab | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-14-house-election-aisha-w-kalshi-kxcaelection-2614-awah |
| Mike Thompson | 89¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-04-house-election-mike-th-kalshi-kxcaelection-2604-mtho |
| Luz Rivas | 87¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-29-house-election-luz-riv-kalshi-kxcaelection-2629-lriv |
| Ken Calvert | 68¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-40-house-election-ken-cal-kalshi-kxcaelection-2640-kcal |
| Jimmy Gomez | 63¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-34-house-election-jimmy-g-kalshi-kxcaelection-2634-jgom |
| Mai Vang | 62¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-07-house-election-mai-van-kalshi-kxcaelection-2607-mvan |
| Doris Matsui | 35¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-07-house-election-doris-m-kalshi-kxcaelection-2607-dmat |
| Angela Gonzales-Torres | 34¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-34-house-election-angela-kalshi-kxcaelection-2634-agon |
| Young Kim | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-40-house-election-young-k-kalshi-kxcaelection-2640-ykim |
| Angélica María Dueñas | 10¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-29-house-election-anglica-kalshi-kxcaelection-2629-adue |
| Eric Jones | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-04-house-election-eric-jo-kalshi-kxcaelection-2604-ejon |
| Melissa Hernandez | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-14-house-election-melissa-kalshi-kxcaelection-2614-mher |
| Samantha Mota | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-37-house-election-samanth-kalshi-kxcaelection-2637-smot |
| Jamie Joyce | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ca-12-house-election-jamie-j-kalshi-kxcaelection-2612-jjoy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Lateefah Simon | Sydney Kamlager-Dove | Aisha Wahab |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 92 | 60 | — |
| 2026-07-01 | 96 | 94 | 87 |
| 2026-07-02 | — | — | 92 |
| 2026-07-03 | — | 93 | 91 |
| 2026-07-05 | — | 92 | 90 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-05 · Mai Vang −8pp 71→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · Doris Matsui +7pp 27→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Sydney Kamlager-Dove will win California's 37th House District election in 2026. The 93% assessment suggests strong confidence in her candidacy, likely driven by factors such as her current political standing, district demographics, and fundraising advantages relative to potential challengers. The actual outcome depends on several variables: whether primary opposition emerges, turnout patterns, and how national political conditions evolve between now and Election Day in November 2026. The primary election in June 2026 will provide the first concrete signal of candidate viability and voter preferences, potentially shifting market confidence significantly if unexpected challengers gain momentum or if fundraising data reveals competitive dynamics not yet priced in.

### Key factors

- Sydney Kamlager-Dove's primary election performance in June 2026 will be the first direct measurement of voter support in the district
- Fundraising totals and spending by Kamlager-Dove relative to any primary or general election opponents will indicate resource disparities affecting campaign reach
- District voter registration trends and demographic shifts between now and November 2026 could alter the electorate composition favoring different candidates
- General election turnout levels in California's 37th District, influenced by statewide and national election dynamics, will affect which candidate's base mobilizes more effectively
- Emergence of well-funded or otherwise competitive challengers in either the primary or general election phase would directly test whether 93% probability reflects durable support or concentrated market sentiment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/caelection
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=caelection
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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