# Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary

> Closed. Last odds frozen 23 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cagov2nd
Updated: 2026-07-12T01:20:54.731Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-02

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | 97¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-hilton-finish-2nd-in-the-2026-californi-kalshi-kxcagov2nd-26jun02-2-shil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 99 |
| 2026-06-17 | 98 |
| 2026-06-18 | 99 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Chad Bianco will finish in second place in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary election at 14% probability. The relatively low probability reflects Bianco's position as a state official without the statewide name recognition of leading candidates, though as a Republican in a competitive primary he remains a plausible second-place finisher. Movement in this probability would depend on primary polling as the election approaches, candidate fundraising totals, and endorsement patterns among California Republicans. The primary election scheduled for June 2026 will definitively resolve this market, with the specific outcome determined by voter distribution across the Republican field.

### Key factors

- Current polling from major California Republican primary surveys showing Bianco's relative standing among GOP candidates
- Total fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for Bianco compared to other top Republican primary contenders
- Endorsements from significant California Republican figures and organizations that could indicate viability
- Turnout and voter preference patterns in recent California Republican primaries as a baseline for primary dynamics
- Bianco's performance and media coverage in the months immediately preceding the June 2026 primary election

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cagov2nd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cagov2nd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.