# Will Los Angeles Mayor be Spencer Pratt wins AND California Governor be Tom Steyer wins for Nov 2026

> Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra leads at 55%, runner-up 30% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cagovlamayor
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.392Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra at 55%
- Runner-up: Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra at 30%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra | 55¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-mayor-be-karen-bass-wins-and-cali-kalshi-kxcagovlamayor-26nov-bas-bec |
| Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-mayor-be-nithya-raman-wins-and-ca-kalshi-kxcagovlamayor-26nov-ram-bec |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra | Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 63 | 8 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | 34 |
| 2026-06-13 | 59 | 26 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 30 |
| 2026-06-19 | 55 | 32 |
| 2026-06-24 | — | 30 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra −8pp 63→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the combined chances that Spencer Pratt wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race while Tom Steyer wins California's gubernatorial race. At 52%, this outcome currently leads the multi-outcome market, though it reflects the highest probability among five possible candidate pairings. The market is pricing in several dynamics: Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra together command identical probability (52%), suggesting uncertainty about whether voters will consolidate around incumbent leadership or seek change. Xavier Becerra appears in the two highest-probability scenarios (58¢ combined across his two pairings), indicating market confidence in his gubernatorial prospects. The resolution hinges on both races moving forward simultaneously through California's election cycle. Upcoming primary dates, candidate announcements, and polling data through fall 2026 will test whether these probabilities hold or shift as voter preferences crystallize.

### Key factors

- Xavier Becerra appears in 58¢ of total market probability across two contracts, suggesting stronger consensus around his gubernatorial viability than Steyer
- Karen Bass-Xavier Becerra pairing matches the Spencer Pratt-Tom Steyer price at 52¢, indicating near-equal probability for incumbent vs. alternative slates
- Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman combined account for only 18¢ across mayoral pairings, suggesting market skepticism about anti-incumbent momentum in Los Angeles
- Tom Steyer appears in only 8¢ of total probability across two contracts, indicating lower market confidence in his gubernatorial prospects versus Becerra
- Daily trading volume exceeds $800 on the leading contracts but drops below $300 on lower-probability outcomes, showing concentrated trader attention on two main scenarios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cagovlamayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cagovlamayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.