# Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina

> Canada leads at 54%, runner-up 25% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/canada-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.700Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-12

## Headline

- Leader: Canada at 54%
- Runner-up: Draw (Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina) at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $55

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 54¢ | −1pp | $55 | polymarket | /markets/canada-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-canada-polymarket-0x802adc7238db42d431521f625b2a367954d04ebf8836109257dd4a3b961c6108 |
| Draw (Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 25¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/canada-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-draw-canada-vs-bo-polymarket-0xeda55c7409e9f0f436377ea300db42db6c576277846df770abd1391828dde639 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/canada-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-bosnia-and-herzeg-polymarket-0x3bb3f35e86949207b257f1f3288a8ceaf071638cbd10a3c9a8273b4f542d4ee0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Canada | Draw (Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina) | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 52 | — | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 52 | 25 | 24 |
| 2026-05-06 | 53 | 27 | 22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 53 | — | 22 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 25 | 23 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Bosnia and Herzegovina −3pp 25→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Canada will defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina in an upcoming World Cup Group B match. The 33% probability suggests markets view Canada as an underdog in this contest, though the 8-percentage-point gap between venues indicates some disagreement about relative strength. Canada's recent FIFA ranking, head-to-head history, and current form relative to Bosnia and Herzegovina would primarily influence this outcome. The match result itself will definitively resolve this question once the game is played, eliminating all uncertainty around team performance on the day.

### Key factors

- Canada's current FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Bosnia and Herzegovina's rankings and recent results
- Historical head-to-head match outcomes and goal differential between the two nations in competitive play
- Team composition changes, injury status of key players, and availability of regular starters for each squad
- Home/away advantage status if applicable, and pitch/climate conditions where the match will be contested
- Current betting lines from traditional sportsbooks for the same matchup, which may reflect different analytical approaches or risk assessments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/canada-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=canada-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.