# Canada vs. Qatar

> Canada leads at 62%, runner-up 26% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/canada-vs-qatar
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.384Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-18

## Headline

- Leader: Canada at 62%
- Runner-up: Draw (Canada vs. Qatar) at 26%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 62¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/canada-vs-qatar-canada-polymarket-0xc90f95af1a5d4e392fe9cc484f1b1a0983687865e7b85910ae89300c2076e4a1 |
| Draw (Canada vs. Qatar) | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/canada-vs-qatar-draw-canada-vs-qatar-polymarket-0x4691465cd4ac73b2fc650d87ba8a4b9cb41dac7d7c74b746b9fefe93803acf9b |
| Qatar | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/canada-vs-qatar-qatar-polymarket-0xbbf3d45e340d1b69feb4f8b1078ecd4e79012299766980def72c58e6dc811117 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Canada | Draw (Canada vs. Qatar) | Qatar |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 59 | 26 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 59 | 26 | 20 |
| 2026-05-09 | 64 | 25 | 17 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Qatar +4pp 18→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Canada +3pp 59→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Qatar −3pp 23→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Qatar −3pp 22→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Canada will defeat Qatar in an upcoming match. The current 34% assessment shows meaningful disagreement between venues, with Polymarket pricing Canada's chances substantially higher than Kalshi. Canada's probability could shift based on team form, injury status, and head-to-head record. Qatar's defensive capabilities and recent performance against comparable opponents represent the key counterweights. The scheduled match date itself serves as the primary catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty entirely. Broader factors include lineup changes closer to kickoff and any significant weather or venue conditions that might favor one side's playing style.

### Key factors

- Polymarket contracts price Canada 15 percentage points higher than Kalshi on average, indicating divergent information or risk appetite across platforms
- Canada's recent competitive record against teams ranked similarly to Qatar on FIFA standings will directly influence whether 34% undervalues or overvalues their chances
- Qatar's performance in their most recent international fixtures and current squad injury status represent concrete metrics affecting their likelihood to win or draw
- The 36¢ price on Switzerland vs. Canada Draw suggests market participants view a stalemate as plausible, which would push Canada's outright win probability lower
- Volume concentration on Qatar vs. Switzerland (at 10¢) indicates less overall confidence in Qatar as a standalone threat compared to Switzerland's strength

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/canada-vs-qatar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=canada-vs-qatar

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.