# Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 0ㅤ

> Exactly 0ㅤ leads at 80%, runner-up 7% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cancuts
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.629Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 0ㅤ at 80%
- Runner-up: Exactly 1ㅤ at 7%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $375

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0ㅤ | 80¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-in-2026-be-exactly-0-kalshi-kxcancuts-26dec31-e0 |
| Exactly 1ㅤ | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-in-2026-be-exactly-1-kalshi-kxcancuts-26dec31-e1 |
| Exactly 2ㅤ | 4¢ | — | $375 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-in-2026-be-exactly-2-kalshi-kxcancuts-26dec31-e2 |
| Exactly 3ㅤ | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-in-2026-be-exactly-3-kalshi-kxcancuts-26dec31-e3 |
| Exactly 4ㅤ | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-in-2026-be-exactly-4-kalshi-kxcancuts-26dec31-e4 |
| 5 or moreㅤ | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-in-2026-be-at-least-kalshi-kxcancuts-26dec31-e5plus |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 0ㅤ | Exactly 1ㅤ | Exactly 2ㅤ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 67 | 7 | 5 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents traders' assessment that the Bank of Canada will hold rates steady throughout 2026, making no cuts during the full calendar year. At 80%, the market is pricing in a strong likelihood of a pause, with much smaller odds assigned to exactly one cut (3%) or exactly two cuts (3%). The current level reflects the BoC's recent messaging on inflation stability and economic conditions. This would shift if inflation resurges, labor markets weaken significantly, or the central bank signals a different policy path. The key resolution points include BoC rate decisions scheduled throughout 2026, with particular attention to how the bank responds to any economic shocks or changes in inflation and unemployment data between now and year-end.

### Key factors

- Current Canadian inflation levels and trajectory relative to the BoC's 2% target through mid-2026
- US Federal Reserve policy signals and interest rate movements, which historically influence BoC decisions
- Canadian unemployment data and wage growth trends over the remainder of 2026
- Explicit forward guidance from BoC leadership in scheduled policy announcements and communications
- Economic growth forecasts and any recession indicators that emerge before the year closes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cancuts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cancuts
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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