# Cannes Film Festival

> Palme d'Or Winner: THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI leads at 29%, runner-up 23% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannes-film-festival
Updated: 2026-05-09T11:20:25.783Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-23

## Headline

- Leader: Palme d'Or Winner: THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI at 29%
- Runner-up: Palme d'Or Winner: HOPE by NA Hong-jin at 23%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $764

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palme d'Or Winner: THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-the-unknown-polymarket-0xe4c10f2aacfa409408bfc0320c9ce832d40c8240c87f7f345abb1fb8ddc430ef |
| Palme d'Or Winner: HOPE by NA Hong-jin | 23¢ | — | $370 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-hope-by-na-h-polymarket-0xf3125ec8969ad69cc5b8609f39d1ff8236b9938bb02698cbc9d4aaea42106135 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-nagi-notes-b-polymarket-0x1c8c609baa7e6e5c37b3e226d725e3f284c152e8048f61000831579a53258ac6 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-amarga-navid-polymarket-0x6d664798c7c0e1c80b96cf796f2bf054be43d843598e71e88235aad35a0a61e2 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-parallel-tal-polymarket-0xb4ead6a07e44ddc4af881ccb3dbda1c50347617be69a0a8afdbb09aa18399994 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-notre-salut-polymarket-0x17e2d8fbd31eeada73e3876cbe21667e6b5a19c576b870234f5d91873b3e85b3 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-the-birthday-polymarket-0xccc272b9bd720afa89f29a37823b35ed4a2ea37b28642e2db0d45de69713b636 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-a-womans-lif-polymarket-0x054947b70e63da9ff61332b6c5c3eb10d43c14f136476cad736292e01765819e |
| Palme d'Or Winner: ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-another-day-polymarket-0xe9f0439e3973a7ce420d1437badfc8a3350598db72aa8e6e2652a99932f648d3 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: MOULIN by László NEMES | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-moulin-by-ls-polymarket-0x6098dd1a663113ac57e430ebb92d09ef8608857b58776ed3ed70f6f94e6b779f |
| Palme d'Or Winner: DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH | 21¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-das-getrumte-polymarket-0x5112d74db988dd7b6c50abd58ced005254ded278e0164e93a98416702d151532 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED) | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-el-ser-queri-polymarket-0x76f4adc19276cf2f3c03aeffd98213ef0e9ade7cd9f3ceab80343c6579321c5e |
| Palme d'Or Winner: COWARD by Lukas DHONT | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-coward-by-lu-polymarket-0xbe8bb88e288d9cc7fde7862f72ba6aab59dbd37f2ff9c0d28f8653625b321cfe |
| Palme d'Or Winner: GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-gentle-monst-polymarket-0xe2f2cb784d51fcbae6c9b3f714a19368d1d0015d945960e2490b6bd47bd0e614 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI | 14¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-fatherland-b-polymarket-0x665a03f2fa0f1e8ebb595d107b6b79059ab74231b4b3aea44bc873bc78e042b5 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV | 13¢ | +4pp | $327 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-minotaur-by-polymarket-0x4a5721cb581749201696b269a2f4af5d6c0fdf44d1e2d236606df912c39d17f2 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke | 13¢ | −2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-all-of-a-sud-polymarket-0x017c11efc5e718698db5e8137ce125495a7d60f81a532f62df4c7b2c2cf33af4 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-fjord-by-cri-polymarket-0xf0ecfbeb8c37a3a6e7a9ee400495a96e4630827a1a24009758f8ce63e051b86f |
| Palme d'Or Winner: LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI | 8¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-la-bola-negr-polymarket-0x0870fd2456996da2ec54fe09cc75f616a4a5dbf6241da7d5953aa0087e9b46b7 |
| Palme d'Or Winner: SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu | 4¢ | −2pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/cannes-film-festival-palme-dor-winner-sheep-in-the-polymarket-0x3ec21df3f56f1b9109c969c3a32c1795adc7c5b983bf2d752f2db3b9824d2ac1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Palme d'Or Winner: THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI | Palme d'Or Winner: HOPE by NA Hong-jin | Palme d'Or Winner: NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 27 | 23 | 28 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Palme d'Or Winner: FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI −6pp 28→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Palme d'Or Winner: MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV +4pp 10→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that a specific film will win the Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival, based on aggregated trading prices across multiple prediction contracts. The current 38% leader, with four other films clustered between 8-29%, reflects genuine uncertainty among market participants about which film the jury will select. The market structure suggests traders are pricing in several competitive contenders rather than a clear favorite. Key factors driving the probability include the critical reception and festival buzz surrounding each film, the composition of this year's jury panel and their documented preferences, and historical precedent for which types of films have won recently. The outcome will be definitively resolved when the official Palme d'Or is announced at Cannes, typically in late May, eliminating all current uncertainty in the market.

### Key factors

- The leading contract at 38% has substantially higher trading volume ($270 in 24h) compared to rivals, suggesting broader market consensus around 'HOPE' while other contenders remain fragmented
- The four-contract bundle representing the top candidates totals only 96% probability, indicating meaningful allocation to long-tail films outside the top five
- Trading volume is heavily concentrated in the frontrunner, with runner-up contracts showing minimal activity ($10 or less in 24h volume), reflecting low liquidity and potential mispricing in secondary positions
- The jury panel composition and individual members' past voting patterns would materially shift probabilities if known, creating information asymmetry
- The festival occurs in late May 2026, providing a definitive resolution date that should theoretically tighten probability ranges as event date approaches

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannes-film-festival
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cannes-film-festival

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.