# Cannes Award for Best performance by an actor

> Sebastian Stan leads at 4%, runner-up 4% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannesbestactor
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.636Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Sebastian Stan at 4%
- Runner-up: Gilles Lellouche at 4%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $184

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Stan | 4¢ | +1pp | $184 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-best-performance-by-an-actor-seba-kalshi-kxcannesbestactor-26-seb |
| Gilles Lellouche | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-best-performance-by-an-actor-gill-kalshi-kxcannesbestactor-26-gil |
| Niels Schneider | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-best-performance-by-an-actor-niel-kalshi-kxcannesbestactor-26-nie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 2 |
| 2026-04-28 | 3 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current estimated likelihood that a male actor will win the Best Actor award at the Cannes Film Festival. The 13% aggregate probability sits between notably divergent assessments: Kalshi's 5% estimate and Polymarket's 21% estimate, a 16-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about either the competitive field or recent developments in this year's awards race. The main drivers of this probability are the strength and recognition of specific nominated performances, historical patterns in Cannes jury decisions, and which films received the most critical acclaim before the festival. The award will be resolved when the Cannes Film Festival concludes and official winners are announced, typically in mid-May. Key uncertainties include which directors and films are selected for competition, critical reception during festival screenings, and jury composition preferences in any given year.

### Key factors

- Kalshi and Polymarket show a 16-percentage-point spread (5% vs 21%), indicating material disagreement about fundamentals rather than just normal market variance
- Cannes Film Festival's official competition lineup and jury selection have not yet occurred, creating baseline uncertainty about eligible candidates
- Historical Cannes acting awards show no clear dominant pattern favoring male over female acting winners across recent years
- Current top-contract volumes are low ($6-$17 daily volume on director markets, $55 on actress market), suggesting limited information discovery and thin liquidity
- The market includes multiple Cannes award contracts across categories (directors, actress, voice performance), but no clear consensus theme about this year's festival or competitive strength

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannesbestactor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cannesbestactor

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.