# Cannes Award for Grand Prix

> Sheep in the Box leads at 7%, runner-up 6% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannesgrandprix
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.711Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Sheep in the Box at 7%
- Runner-up: Coward at 6%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheep in the Box | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-grand-prix-sheep-in-the-box-kalshi-kxcannesgrandprix-26-she |
| Coward | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-grand-prix-coward-kalshi-kxcannesgrandprix-26-cow |
| Hope | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-grand-prix-hope-kalshi-kxcannesgrandprix-26-hop |
| Minotaur | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-grand-prix-minotaur-kalshi-kxcannesgrandprix-26-min |
| Fatherland | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-grand-prix-fatherland-kalshi-kxcannesgrandprix-26-fat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Coward | Hope | Minotaur |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | — | — | 7 |
| 2026-04-15 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 6 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 6 | 5 | 5 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 7% probability reflects the market's assessment that the film 'Minotaur' will win the Grand Prix award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. The Grand Prix is typically awarded to the second-most acclaimed film at the festival, behind the Palme d'Or. Current pricing suggests relatively low confidence in this outcome compared to other contenders—notably 'Hope,' which carries an 18% probability for the Palme d'Or. The probability will primarily be influenced by the quality and reception of films selected for competition, the preferences of this year's jury, and how 'Minotaur' performs relative to other entries when the festival concludes. The Cannes Film Festival typically occurs in May, making the award ceremony the key resolution event. Trading volume remains thin across most contracts, indicating limited market liquidity and potentially high uncertainty around film festival outcomes generally.

### Key factors

- 'Minotaur' must be selected for official competition at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival and complete its screening
- The film's critical reception and peer performance relative to approximately 15-20 other competition entries will determine jury consideration
- The composition and voting preferences of the 2026 jury panel remain unknown and substantially influence award distribution
- Trading volume for this contract is minimal ($6 in 24-hour volume), suggesting low confidence in price discovery
- The Palme d'Or frontrunner 'Hope' at 18% indicates market belief that other films are more likely winners of top awards

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannesgrandprix
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cannesgrandprix

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.