# Cannes Award for Jury Prize

> Coward leads at 8%, runner-up 8% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannesjuryprize
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.232Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Coward at 8%
- Runner-up: Coward at 8%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $72

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minotaur | 8¢ | −1pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-minotaur-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-min |
| Coward | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-coward-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-cow |
| All of Sudden | 8¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-all-of-sudden-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-all |
| Hope | 8¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-hope-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-hop |
| Fjord | 7¢ | +1pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-fjord-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-fjo |
| Das Geträumte Abenteuer | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-das-getrumte-abenteuer-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-das |
| La Bola Negra | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-la-bola-negra-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-lab |
| Sheep in the Box | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-sheep-in-the-box-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-she |
| Fatherland | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-fatherland-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-fat |
| Parallel Tales | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-jury-prize-parallel-tales-kalshi-kxcannesjuryprize-26-par |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Minotaur | Coward | All of Sudden |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 8 | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 9 | — | 1 |
| 2026-05-07 | 8 | 8 | 8 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · All of Sudden +7pp 1→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 18% probability reflects market expectations that 'Hope' will win the Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. This represents a narrow lead among multiple competing films, with the outcome hinging on jury preferences and festival momentum. Trading volume on the top contract ($197 in 24 hours) indicates modest interest; the wider field of candidates keeps any single film's odds modest. The probability will shift based on pre-festival reviews, industry buzz, and any emerging favorites as the festival approaches. The Cannes jury will make the final determination when they convene to vote, likely in mid-May 2026.

### Key factors

- 'Hope' holds a 3x probability lead over the runner-up film (18% vs 10%), suggesting meaningful but not dominant market confidence in its chances.
- Trading volume is concentrated in the top contract, while secondary candidates show minimal daily activity, indicating low conviction in alternatives rather than consensus certainty.
- The Palme d'Or market fragments across multiple films, with no single title capturing majority probability, typical of prestigious awards where jury taste varies.
- The festival takes place in May 2026; jury deliberations and announcement will occur within weeks, providing a hard resolution date.
- Kalshi's 20 bound contracts show modest leverage and depth, suggesting limited speculative positioning relative to typical major awards markets.

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannesjuryprize
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cannesjuryprize

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.