# Cannes Award for Palme d’Or

> Hope leads at 16%, runner-up 11% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannespalmedor
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.677Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Hope at 16%
- Runner-up: Paper Tiger at 11%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $778

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hope | 16¢ | −3pp | $268 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-palme-dor-hope-kalshi-kxcannespalmedor-26-hop |
| Paper Tiger | 11¢ | +3pp | $454 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-palme-dor-paper-tiger-kalshi-kxcannespalmedor-26-pap |
| Fjord | 9¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-palme-dor-fjord-kalshi-kxcannespalmedor-26-fjo |
| Fatherland | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-palme-dor-fatherland-kalshi-kxcannespalmedor-26-fat |
| Minotaur | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-palme-dor-minotaur-kalshi-kxcannespalmedor-26-min |
| All of Sudden | 5¢ | −1pp | $42 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-palme-dor-all-of-sudden-kalshi-kxcannespalmedor-26-all |
| Coward | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-palme-dor-coward-kalshi-kxcannespalmedor-26-cow |
| Parallel Tales | 4¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/cannes-award-for-palme-dor-parallel-tales-kalshi-kxcannespalmedor-26-par |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hope | Paper Tiger | Fjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 5 | — | 7 |
| 2026-04-23 | 13 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-04-25 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| 2026-04-29 | 16 | 8 | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | 16 | 11 | 9 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Coward +4pp 1→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Paper Tiger +3pp 8→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Hope +3pp 16→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Hope −3pp 19→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · All of Sudden −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 18% probability indicates a roughly one-in-five chance that "Hope" wins the Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. This probability reflects trader assessments based on the film's perceived artistic merit, festival buzz, and competition from other entries. The relatively modest probability suggests traders view it as a competitive but not frontrunning candidate. The level would move higher if early festival screenings generate critical acclaim or lower if competing films gain momentum. The key catalyst is the festival's screening schedule and jury deliberations, which typically occur in mid-May at Cannes. The 18% leader price significantly exceeds the next runner-up at 11%, indicating some concentration of belief, though the remaining contracts suggest considerable uncertainty about the ultimate winner across the full slate of nominees.

### Key factors

- 'Hope' is priced as the leader among Palme d'Or candidates but commands less than one-fifth of implied probability, indicating no frontrunner consensus
- The contract shows $197 in 24-hour volume, substantially higher than competing films, suggesting active trader interest and potential new information flow
- The 2026 Cannes Film Festival judging occurs in May, creating a near-term resolution event that will determine whether this probability was calibrated accurately or requires repricing
- Multiple Palme d'Or contracts exist at varying prices (18%, 4%, and others), reflecting genuine uncertainty about which film will be selected by the jury
- Kalshi's six bound contracts on this category suggest traders view this as a relatively open competition rather than a heavily favored winner

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cannespalmedor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cannespalmedor

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.