# Will Conor McGregor be on the UFC 2026 White House event card

> Closed. Last odds frozen 12 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cardpresenceufcwh
Updated: 2026-06-16T13:20:51.368Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-04

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $827

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 3¢ | +1pp | $827 | kalshi | /markets/will-kayla-harrison-be-on-the-ufc-2026-white-house-kalshi-kxcardpresenceufcwh-26jul04-khar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 2 |
| 2026-06-01 | 2 |
| 2026-06-10 | 2 |
| 2026-06-14 | 3 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that Conor McGregor will compete on a UFC card held at the White House before July 5, 2026, marking the U.S. bicentennial. The 4% probability suggests significant skepticism about McGregor's participation in such an event. The low odds likely reflect McGregor's recent inactivity—he hasn't fought since 2021—combined with uncertainty about whether the UFC will actually host an event at the White House. A separate contract shows 92% confidence the White House event itself will occur by July 5, 2026, indicating most uncertainty centers on McGregor specifically rather than the event's existence. McGregor's participation would require both recovery from injury, acceptance of a fight slot, and scheduling alignment with the White House event date. Resolution will depend on official UFC fight announcements and the confirmed date of any White House event.

### Key factors

- McGregor has not competed since January 2021; his current training status and willingness to fight remain unconfirmed
- The UFC's White House event is viewed as 92% likely to occur by July 5, 2026, but specific card composition and participant agreements are undetermined
- McGregor is one of multiple high-profile fighters being priced for the White House card; the market suggests significantly lower probability for his specific participation compared to fighters like Kayla Harrison (5%) and Islam Makhachev (3%)
- The event occurs in roughly two months (by July 5, 2026), leaving limited time for fight announcement, negotiations, and promotion of a McGregor matchup
- McGregor's historical bargaining power and selectivity about opponents could factor into whether UFC offers him a White House slot versus other premium events

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cardpresenceufcwh
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cardpresenceufcwh
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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