# Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Jan 1, 2030 leads at 47%, runner-up 22% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/carriedinterest-26may
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.051Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2030 at 47%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2029 at 22%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-amends-the-internal-revenue-kalshi-kxcarriedinterest-26may-30jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 22¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-amends-the-internal-revenue-kalshi-kxcarriedinterest-26may-29jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 17¢ | +13pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-amends-the-internal-revenue-kalshi-kxcarriedinterest-26may-28jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2030 | Before Jan 1, 2029 | Before Jan 1, 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 8 | 5 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | 47 | 22 | 17 |
| 2026-06-24 | 47 | — | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Before Jan 1, 2030 +45pp 2→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Before Jan 1, 2029 +15pp 7→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Before Jan 1, 2028 +13pp 4→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Congress will pass and enact a law before year-end 2026 that eliminates the preferential tax treatment for carried interest held by investment fund managers. Carried interest—profits partnerships distribute to managers—currently receives long-term capital gains rates rather than higher ordinary income rates, saving investment professionals significant taxes. Reform efforts have surfaced periodically for over a decade, with supporters arguing it closes a tax loophole for high earners and critics contending it would discourage fund formation. The current 4% probability reflects the legislative difficulty of passing revenue measures during a divided Congress, combined with the short remaining timeline. The primary catalyst would be movement through House Ways and Means Committee, which must initiate revenue legislation. Key dynamics include broader tax policy negotiations, election-year political considerations, and whether reform becomes bundled with other tax legislation rather than pursued independently.

### Key factors

- Congress must pass revenue legislation and the President must sign it within approximately 6.5 months—a compressed timeline for complex tax code changes
- The composition and priorities of the relevant congressional committees, particularly House Ways and Means, determine whether carried interest reform receives floor time
- Carried interest reform has been proposed multiple times over the past 15 years without becoming law, suggesting structural legislative barriers beyond current political dynamics
- Whether carried interest reform is pursued as standalone legislation or packaged with broader tax reform, infrastructure, or deficit measures affects its likelihood of passage
- Investment industry lobbying and political contributions historically have opposed carried interest taxation changes, creating organized opposition to legislative attempts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/carriedinterest-26may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=carriedinterest-26may

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.